2021. 1st of 2 scheduled transformatonal years.
maybe not for IPL
who are VERY keen on getting some gas for the plant
Good informative post from hc;
"Thanks, yeah I remember the three well options but it just seems to me the language used in this announcement suggests the original wellbore option is being ruled out - maybe I'm reading too much into it. It's no big deal, happy to wait and see what Santos decides. The original wellbore is preferable financially but there may be issues around kick tolerance at such huge pressures which may require a new well with casing set deeper.
Thanks for clarification on the carry option. 55-45 is a bit high for CTP so I hope this option is taken up. Conversely 55% is a bit low for STO when they could have 70% of any successful potentially TCF-scale development for what is chump change for them, so it makes sense. But when dealing with majors (and competing priorities within them, including management KPIs) you don't always get the sensible choice.
I don't know much about Zevon other than what's been in CTP's recent announcements but I can add a few comments. At 1600km2 it's beyond massive and into the realm of "gargantuan." On top of that it's just the biggest of around a dozen other potential sub-salt leads CTP has identified so if Dukas and Zevon were to come off you're talking an entirely new major petroleum province. Sub-salt is a special type of play as shown in Dukas, because salt seals are the best in the business and can hold basically any amount of pressure without breaching. This compares with traditional shale seals which can hold up to a certain reservoir pressure before the capillary entry pressure of the shale pore throats is exceeded and then the seal can't hold any more hydrocarbons. Salt seals are also able to trap helium which is rare, helium molecules are so small and light that shale seals often can't trap them effectively.
The risk of these sub-salt targets is actually finding an effective reservoir below them. This is a problem everywhere in the Amadeus and once you start getting this deep, porosity gets even harder to find. On top of that, the 2D seismic over Zevon is so sparse (see slide 12 of the 7 Aug 2020 ann) that it's too premature to really know what sort of structure might be here, which is why they are shooting 500km of extra seismic. It's currently at a stage geologists would refer to as a weak lead, would expect a fairly major revision to the size and shape of the Zevon structure by the time that seismic is shot and interpreted. Hopefully that's enough to upgrade it from a weak lead to a drillable prospect, although to be honest 500km doesn't get you a lot of coverage of a 1600km2 target.
The only well in the area to near the target depth is Mt Winter 1 which was drilled in 1981 and stopped in the salt member - possibly luckily as if they'd gone further they may have hit the same overpressure as at Dukas and may not have been equipped to handle it - from the WCR I see they were drilled with air for most of the well. So the presence of the seal is confirmed but what's underneath is anyone's guess.
So the next update for Zevon should be about the seismic program. The quarterly sounded pretty non-committal on this point but hopefully they will be able to shoot it this year."
CTP is on schedule with its fourteen planned announcements this year. Todays statement about Dukas decision making is right on time. STO taking more time to conclude technical analysis on Dukas redrill has consequences for CTPs plan to use same drill for Zevon immediately after Dukas drill. It likely means costs of Zevon drill will be much higher. It is puzzling why CTP is not investing in SFD ( stress field detection ) technology to reduce costs and maximise chances of drill success in its frontier areas. STD have documented 70 % success rate. Success rate for seismic is much lower. CTP discontinued previous, negotiated with CEO and Chair by shareholders, reports webcasts without discussion, acknowledgement or advice. Current Chair has written comment with 1H report instead of usual CEO blurb ; will be interesting to see if webcast following reports will be resumed - or is new arbitrary regime to be written comment only. At this stage current Chairs appointment has only produced some macro-policy comments in established media - he may not be a GOD after all ?
"so the original story was that they needed a bigger drill. Now, after all this time the story changes? Santos knew back then that they were never going to pursue Dumas and that is my opinion.
CTP needs to find a serious partner. Tied to Santos all these years has brought us jack shit. Sad but true."
My thoughts exactly about Cottee's "big gorilla", Santos, ... just playing with Central Petroleum, and holding us back, ... similar to MB, only wanting to look after themselves and not share holders.
Hope Leon has Santos permission to discuss Central.
watch and see if the IPL JV comes good
if that fails to deliver maybe IPL might need some staff changes ( not just shuffling directors )
that should be a hint to real investors then
even CDU used to keep the div. dream alive
Question/comments I made on webinar;
"As a share holder since 2008, I have to ask, why not fast forward the Zevon well, Cottee's "Gorillas", ... Santos and MB seem to have thwarted Central's development, IMO."
"Do a JV with Beach or Twiggy, someone who is more fair dinkum."
"Let's just do our own sub salt well before other companies do the same."
"thanks for answering my questions."
Leon answered, but all boils down to power/control/money spent by Santos in Amadeus, .... but, but, but, .... Central should be drilling their own separate well for sub salt.