Indochine low on cash
Just by reading the cash flow statement over the last few quarters it seems IDC burns on average at least 5 to 7m each quarter.
The next quarter they estimate to be burning about 5m$ and only have about 3.5m in cash on hand (as at 31 march).
Given that it is May already they should have only about 2m left.
The share price plunging of late even though gold has recovered points to a possible capital raising at sub 4c levels.
Wonder how much they will raise this time, they have a history of raising every 3-4 months at discounts to institutions.
It will be tough to raise in this market and a substantial discount might be required. Guessing around 10-15% which might point to 4c capital raising at current share price.
Doubt they will be able to get a debt facility as they are years from production and banks would have to wait possibly 3-4 years for any return on funds.
Predel, respect your opinion mate but please stick to the current facts until they're proven otherwise. Yesterday's presentation maintains that production is on track to commence in 17-19 months time (late 2015) targeting 160,000 oz p.a, not in 'years' or '3-4 years time' as you stated. We can all hypothesise about what may or may not eventuate however it would be more helpful to others interested in IDC that we base our debate & comments on what we know to be true thus far, rather than exagerate.
Also listening to Steve's comments on BRR the other day, he seemed very confident about any short term funding that may be required. Apart from his personal 1.85mil shareholding in IDC, we do know that he and the board/management are intelligent folk with plenty of experience and therefore it would be logical to assume that he and others will be exploring all options to avoid diluting the register to kingdom come. i.e It is entirely possible IMO that they are one step ahead of you and are thinking outside the [CR at a 10-15% discount on an already extremely supressed SP] square. In any case, any economically viable high grade project with good management IMO should be able to achieve a reasonable deal for shareholders, even in the current environement. Look at BGS recently who achieved a CR at a 30% premium.
Guys & gals, I prefer to try & stick to the facts wherever possible. There is simply no evidence to suggest that the sky is falling in on IDC, despite what the doomsdayers would have us believe. If their motive is simply due to their own frustration with the SP performance, then that's understable I guess. Otherwise be careful what you read and how you act accordingly. I have a considerable paper loss on this stock and I'd be lying if my emotions didn't get in the way of the truth at times. However I prefer to keep my b**sh*tometer charged at all times and maintain a healthy level of objectivity to help guide me through the 'valley of death'.
Elphamale, many thanks for your post.
I personally find it annoying to read this repeating post.
It was started on another web page by a guy who is half baked desperate broker is Sydney, one of those horrible manilpulators.
Apparerenly he scouts for cliets and attempts to manipulate the market by posting this kind of rubbish.
Hes done it to a few companies now.
Its obviously from that same person under numerous tags has continually misinformed readers here, even in the face of the obvious.
Excellent post,as you say the sky is not falling.The drilling assays are exceptional ad they are not going to disappear.With every Meter drilled the resource will improve as the source of
the the ore is fully understood.IDC have enough ore to start mining ,and as the cash flows in
they will have the money to increase drilling to follow Burgess et al conceptual ideas of the ore body and increases incredibly .If you do not believe this then i am sorry.A few years away this ore body will be enormous.Check History Over a million ounces taken from the surface
Mo deep drilling to date,many untested targets
So may people here are critical of IDC but they just don't understand anything but the share price
They seem to never realize what the drill results are saying.
Or what the significance of completeion of milestone events really mean.
All it is for them is the share price.
Pendel knows this only too well.
Fair enough if thats what they base their decision to invest on.
But as a share holder with a larger than usual chunk of the current retail shares I take my status as a share holder seriously.
And there is just so much dross here some times.
This is such a fantastic project.
Its already economic, and its high grade, in the top quatile in my view.
I am amazed with the individual today who thought it approprite to explain why IDC's share price was so low.
Firstly, they themselves are not even holding shares and never have.
Non of the comclusions they reach can explain the markets behavior over the last year.
Secondly, nothing they say is either relevant or true as to the position they seek to maintain.
Mt Kare dilling has been demonstrating amazing grades.
The sort of grades required to propel the project on to the top of the up and coming projects.
The IDC management and senior staff could not be better and more experienced.
Yet, with blinkered eyes, out comes this constant claptrap.
In any other country IDC's drill results would have bee greeted with huge acclaimed by its retail share holders abnd by te market as a whole.
But no such recognition here in Australia.
IDC should have listed on the TSX.
Then we would not have to listen to this garbage down ramping and the share price would be around $1.50.
Gold will head north big time over the next two or three years.
I think IDC should list on the TSX.
It really woould not take all that much effort.
Might make report writing a tad more convoluted but so what.
When Madison had Kare they were trading at C$1.50 !
The North Americans would absolutely dive at IDC if they were given the chance.
IDC drill results have not spurred the market because they are not super bonanza hits. They are just high grade which is equivalent to average drill results elsewhere due to how difficult it is to operate in PNG.
The gold recovery is poor for IDC, with 88% for 3 years and dropping to 83% for the remainder.
This is why the share price has steadily declined and has been accelerated with the dip in gold price. This is because the mine would have been economic at 1650$USD which was what gold price IDC used in their pre-feas but probably just marginal at 1470$.
The Internal rate of return was 28% using a gold price of 1650$ so it would be well below 20% at todays gold price. Tax hasn't even been considered so it is barely worthwhile now especially with the monster capex pricetag to get into production.
Drastic improvements need to be done in the feasibility study before the market will re-rate IDC and the market is always right.
You know what your saying is a false hood.
Predel, I hold this stock and am sick of people like you trying to run it down, maybe you should do your homework before joining a site just on the 4/5 then come on it and do what you are doing. Suggest you go back to HC
Inick, how do you know it is falsehood. Are you accusing me of lying?
You know what you say is falsehood? I could easily say the same thing about what you type?
How can i be wrong about IDC being low on cash when their cashflow statement says the exact thing?
pops11, run it down? How so? This is the truth and holders need to be warned in case the company announces a dilutive capital raising which might occur. What is HC?
I never attempt to make money on the stock market.
I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.
You need to understand the wisdom in these words.