Where from here
a colleague predicted 6400 by the end of 2018 ( and that went pretty close ) ( i thought 6100 was stretching the luck )
but here we are above 6300 again and early in the reporting season so 6400 is very possible and 6500 must be something calculated as possible as well
BUT how much higher ???
this is May when many start considering taking profits , a Federal Election on the 18th of May ( and some big possible changes to investment sentiment ) plenty of international news the could affect the currency and global markets
i think i will quietly remain cautious ( and take sensible profits )
if the market goes higher it will do so with very little of my extra cash ( i still hold BBOZ and BBUS but am cautiously willing to add )
the problem with stocks is TINA ( there is no alternative for income , despite the higher risk )
there is a perception the RBA will cut rates ( i don't think it will before March 2020 ) so term deposits and bonds look less attractive , currently there are special divs being squeezed out to disperse franking credits
but how long will this all last until the election results , or maybe until July 1st ( for tax-selling )
will the global economy finally collapse , or will China 'sneeze '
my plan ( so far ) is not be a forced seller ( and try to ride it out )
will they next retrace be 10% , 20% or much , much more ( we still have a Brexit to navigate as well )
Housing downturn spreads with worst annual drop since GFC
Even Hobart prices may have peaked. Picture: Supplied.
Even Hobart prices may have peaked. Picture: Supplied.
By MACKENZIE SCOTT
11:19AM MAY 1, 2019
The housing downturn has continued to spread, with the fall in prices during the last year the worst since the global financial crisis, researcher CoreLogic’s monthly housing index shows.
National house prices fell 0.5 per cent in April, culminating in a 7.2 per cent decrease in prices over the past 12 months. The annual decline is the worst since February 2009, the year the global financial crisis spread through the Australian economy.
A majority of economists are predicting an upcoming interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia, which CoreLogic’s head of research Tim Lawless said may stem the falling property values.
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“Any sort of reduction in the cost of debt is going to have a positive effect on the markets,” Mr Lawless said.
“We’re already seeing signs that the rate of decline is easing off and potentially that could support a further easing in declines. It might also stave off some of the really modest or light declines we’re seeing in very affordable markets like Brisbane and Adelaide and start to support some level of recovery in markets that have seen and entrenched downturn like Perth and Darwin.”
Housing value falls in Sydney and Melbourne slowed in April to 0.7 per cent and 0.6 per cent respectively, an improvement on falls of about 1 per cent in December.
Canberra, the only capital to stay in the black, experienced 0.4 per cent growth for the month.
The previously resilient markets of Brisbane and Adelaide continued their falls last month. Brisbane slipped 0.4 per cent in April, adding to annual falls off 1.9 per cent. Adelaide on the other hand maintained a positive annual result of 0.3 per cent but fell 0.1 per cent for the month.
Surprisingly, the Hobart market reported a fall of 0.9 per cent for the month. The Tasmanian capital is currently at its peak, having experienced an increase in the prices of 3.8 per cent over the past 12 months.
“The inclusion of Hobart in the falling values list is a little bit different because that’s been such a standout growth market. That probably does suggest a few cracks appearing in Hobart’s strong trajectory of capital gains,” Mr Lawless said.
“An almost 1 per cent fall over the month is substantial, but we probably need to see a few more months of this sort of pattern before we can clearly say the market is moving through a peak.”
Four of the top 10 best performing capital city subregions reported annual declines over the last 12 months. Along with Hobart, the ACT had the most significant annual price growth.
On the other end of the spectrum, most of the subregions leading the weaker end of the market were in Sydney and Melbourne.
Regional markets performed quite well compared to metropolitan centres, with the satellite areas around Melbourne and Hobart standing out. South East Tasmania topped the list with annual price increases 8.6 per cent, followed by the state’s west and north west, increasing 7.1 per cent. Ballarat, Latrobe-Gippsland and Shepparton in Victoria also performed well, each benefiting from relative affordability and increased state migration.
But Sydney satellites Newcastle and the Illawarra struggled, falling 8.6 per cent and 9.9 per cent respectively over the last 12 months. The biggest regional price falls continued to be in found in outback Queensland and South Australia.
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the housing boom had to end , but how it was done was a real cluster of the clueless
1. xenophobia ( against international investors ) looked shabby and short-sighted but would have probably done enough by itself .. but call it a diplomacy fail
2. bias against property investors , again short-sighted , but probably great for our international peers ( you won't fix this quickly ) ( and yes i was potentially one of these , i will now negative-gear until death , if i need to borrow at all )
3 tightening of mortgage requirements , an overreaction to a massive regulatory sleep-in
just kicking the regulators in the ar*e probably would have solved the problem ( by itself )
4. lending practices , well that is a result of issue 3 .. ( but the big banks donate to all the major parties so of course they were complacent and sloppy ) thanks for the RC bill guys it could have been better spent elsewhere
( but it was cheaper than the marriage equality referendum )
for home-buyers ( as a principal residence ) the MAIN factor is income/employment stability these bogus job figures only fool politicians ( and the RBA )
the PROPER mining investment boom is still several years away ( when India and South-East Asia start to get the bottlenecks out of their economies )