Where from here
am not sure i will be around in 14 years time
but good luck to those that are
the ' floor ' has rotten boards so i would be looking at the fib. around 68% ( 68.1 ??? ) for the retrace
Looks set for Blood on the Streets today
... so what's the consenus? Buying opportunity today or will the rest of the week's bad news, as the virus news & world stock markets plunge hits the media, push us even lower?
"The Australian sharemarket is poised to slump at the open as fears spread through global markets that a virus outbreak emanating from China will serverely dent global growth.
Stocks fell sharply on Wall Street on Friday (local time), setting up the Australian sharemarket for steep falls on Monday morning. At 6am AEDT on Monday, futures are pointing to a fall of 119 points, or 1.7 per cent at the open."
has touched 7,139.300 today , just 5 points short of the record
please take care
am watching thinking to add more BBUS ..( maybe even extra BBOZ )
7,145.800 touched ( a new record ) but is close to 7105 currently
Charlie Munger warns there are ‘lots of troubles coming’ because of ‘too much wretched excess’
PUBLISHED WED, FEB 12 20203:30 PM ESTUPDATED WED, FEB 12 20208:38 PM EST
Munger highlighted how much risk investors are taking when investing, particularly in China.
“In China, … they love to gamble in stocks. This is really stupid,” Munger said.
Munger also highlighted the proliferation of EBITDA as a profit metric as another sign of wretched excess, calling it “ridiculous.”
“I don’t like when investment bankers talk about EBITDA, which I call bulls--- earnings.”
CNBC: Charles Munger 170508 001
David A. Grogan | CNBC
Charlie Munger, vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway and Warren Buffett’s longtime business partner, issued a dire warning about the future on Wednesday.
“I think there are lots of troubles coming,” he said at the Los Angeles-based Daily Journal annual shareholders meeting. “There’s too much wretched excess.”
Munger — who chairs the publisher — highlighted how much risk investors are taking when investing, particularly in China.
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“In China, … they love to gamble in stocks. This is really stupid,” Munger said. “It’s hard to imagine anything dumber than the way the Chinese hold stocks.”
In the U.S. alone, investors face risks ranging from the coronavirus’ impact on the economy to political uncertainty from the upcoming presidential election. Also, the Treasury announced on Wednesday that the U.S. budget deficit increased by 25% in the first four months of the fiscal 2020 period to $1.06 trillion. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 both hit record highs on Wednesday.
To make his point about excess, Munger cited the proliferation of EBITDA as a fake profit metric. “I don’t like when investment bankers talk about EBITDA, which I call bulls--- earnings,” he said.
“It’s ridiculous,” Munger said, noting EBITDA — which is short for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization — does not accurately reflect how much money a company makes, unlike traditional earnings. “Think of the basic intellectual dishonesty that comes when you start talking about adjusted EBITDA. You’re almost announcing you’re a flake.”
Charlie Munger: If the government prints too much money, it ends up like Venezuela
Uber shares jumped last week after saying it was moving up its “EBITDA profitability” target to the fourth quarter of this year.
But that’s not all that’s bothering Munger. He also said the innovation boom he has experienced throughout his live could start to wane.
“I do think that my generation had the best of all this technological change,” said Munger, 96, noting medicine has improved dramatically during his lifetime while inventions such as air conditioning have increased the standard of living. “I don’t think we’re going to get as much improvement in the future because we’ve gotten so much already.”
Investors of all stripes look forward to Munger’s annual address since because of the wisdom he shares. Munger is also considered to be one of the best investors and business thinkers ever. Before joining Buffett at Berkshire, Munger ran an investment partnership that returned an average of 20% per year from 1962 to 1975. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 averaged an annual return of just 5% in that time.
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It is very surreal. The biggest threat to world wealth in two decades, maybe more decades - the coronavirus (Wuhan War Virus), is being blown off and ignored by the markets when the damage to the world economy is more evident by the day. Even today NHK Japan managed to mention, during their hourly news broadcasts, which Japanese companies are suffering from the virus effects. As they do daily. Today it was Honda and Nissan most notably, and that would blowback on their un-named hundreds of Japanese suppliers that have been told to stop or slow.
The world markets seemed to be lost in some twilight zone. A twilight zone where corporate investors are manipulating the market, thru clever distribution, as they reduce their holdings. And dumb retail investors increase their holdings/losses.
Most important for China's GDP - construction steel sector where apparent demand has literally hit the bottom of the chart, down an unprecedented 88% Y/Y or as Goldman puts it, "construction steel demand is approaching zero."
There is a high probability that China's GDP in Q1 will not only flatline, but crater deep in the red for one simple reason: there is no economic activity taking place whatsoever.
Trump administration eyes 10% middle-class tax cut proposal
*** One proposal the Trump administration is considering is creating tax incentives intended to encourage U.S. households to invest in the stock market, CNBC reported on Friday, citing four senior administration officials. ***
if only this virus is a black swan ( and not a plague of them )
the Gulf of Mexico already DEEP in debt and thought to need $US a barrel to make a profit ( and address their debt obligations )
sheer theatrics , but yes sub $40 ( US ) oil is possible , but just look EVERYWHERE for trouble