Where from here
It's all a matter of opinion of course, and here's another one.
in many companies , i cannot see how the earnings and profits look good for the last 3 months
as rocketbob mentions elsewhere PEs are at crazy levels despite the share price drops
but modern share investors seem to be happy to buy forward earnings , but so many companies have withdrawn guidance as well , and many will take this opportunity to restructure , if they survive at all
currently the market in many cases is similar to buying resource/explorers , no positive cashflow , plenty of costs and facing probable new regulations
true some will survive even take advantage of the situation , but how good are you at picking those
cheers and good luck
"We think the rally may have got a little bit ahead of itself … I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a bit of a consolidation phase from here," he said.
"We can understand the reasons why the markets will continue to go up, but now I think we need confirmation as to where we expect earrings to come by in the next year or so, not just the next six months."
Profit taking capped gains at the end of an extraordinary week for the ASX where five straight weeks of gains accelerated amid a catch-up rally for the unloved banking sector.
Despite slipping on Friday, the financials added 11.1 per cent for the week and the wider ASX 200 4.7 per cent.
The week ahead is littered with economic data that would usually prove crucial to market sentiment, but which analysts say has mostly been priced in.
March quarter GDP figures and April building approvals are due on Wednesday, and a full read on April retail trade will be revealed on Thursday, along with the month’s international trade.
Analysts will be looking for colour from the Reserve Bank board meeting on Tuesday but the cash rate is not expected to shift from its current record low 0.25 per cent.
but but crap stock is the place you are most likely to forget about it ..in a bad way
looks like the top end of town are in a wave of capital raising
choose carefully the worst of this crash MIGHT be still coming
March quarter GDP figures and April building approvals are due today, and a full read on April retail trade will be revealed on Thursday, along with the month’s international trade.
There's talk about Aussie federal govt support for stimulus directed at the building industry, especially home renos. There were no details yesterday but if the building approvals & GDP figures are bad (highly likely) then Josh FriedIceberg might throw us a bone today.
Stocks Rally, Dow Up 100 Points Despite Civil Unrest
The market opened higher on Tuesday, with stocks continuing to rally on optimism about a reopening of the economy despite widespread civil unrest across the country over the killing of George Floyd.
Stocks that would benefit from a reopening jumped on Tuesday, including airlines, cruise operators and casinos. Some retailers and banks also posted early gains.
That Peak Prosperity site is good, Salvo ... I went through that course on his website a few years ago ... its an interesting contrarian view of the world. Being a bear during the greatest bull run in history was a bit odd - he totally missed it - but there are elements of truth, especially these days. Its good info to have but if you're optimistic about the planet's economy, I wouldn't use it as the sole base of your investment strategy.
It would be wise to invest for a recession
i have a bearish leaning since 2013 , bizarrely some safe haven stocks have done very well for me in the bull rally in the last 7 years
so what does a bear do in a bull rally ... take profits when sensible , buy the odd share if it is unfairly smashed
the global economy is still in deep trouble , so invest on fundamentals and take profits on irrational exuberance , seems to work for me OK
for example i bought EXTRA APE in March 2020 @ $2.64 and reduced the holding @ $6.90 at open this morning
basically doubling the investment cash n March but keeping a few extra shares with the original holding
now we all know the Australian retail sector has recovered nicely in the last 2 months ... don't we ( LOL )
i hope the novices are watching all this .. these might be truly historic times even compared to the 1920's Wall Street crash
An Australian economy battered by bushfires and the early stages of the coronavirus pandemic shrank by 0.3 per cent in the March quarter, the first quarter of negative growth in 9 years.
In figures that put Australia half way to the popular definition of a recession of consecutive negative quarters of growth, the bureau of statistics on Wednesday said a collapse in consumer spending on services and falls in government capital expenditure and household construction contributed to the result.
This year household spending fell by 1.1 per cent in the March quarter but it was skewed by the summer's fires and the pandemic.
Spending on essentials was up 0.6 per cent but expenditure on discretionary goods and services dropped by an out-sized 3.9 per cent.
Total business investment dropped by 0.4 per cent while capital spending by governments dropped by 0.7 per cent.
Net trade contributed 0.5 percentage points to the result, but was this largely due to a drop of 6.2 per cent in imports.
All economists, the Treasury and the RBA are resigned to the June quarter showing the economy experiencing its worst three-month period since the 1930s.
It's getting hilarious - a super-bubble in the obvious initial stages of a depression. Equities with no hope of a dividend for years - being devoured by buyers. Property even kicking in as an 'investment' when everyone knows the the economy is almost on its knees. The only thing saving Australia for the time being, is Morrison kicking in borrowed cash. He can't do that forever....I'm dumbfounded...until I watch the latest news from the US....than realise how lucky we are.....It could be much worse here.....
it MIGHT get much worse here
the BIG picture is to gab more power in high level government departments ( like the security and finance branches ) and i DON'T just mean in the US or even EU
Nasdaq ends 1.4% off record close as stock-market lurches higher, following economic data pointing to less severe COVID-19 downturn
The Dow Jones Industrial Average US:DJIA advanced 527.24 points, or 2.1%, to close at 26,269.89, while the S&P 500 US:SPX rose 42.05 points, or 1.4%, to end at 3,112.87, the highest finish for both benchmarks since March 4, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The Nasdaq Composite Index US:COMP rose 74.54 points, or 0.8%, ending at 9,682.91, or 1.4% away from its all-time closing high of 9,817.18 in February.
On Tuesday, the Dow rose 267.63 points, or 1.1%, to end at 25,742.65, marking its highest close since March 6, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index rose 25.09 points, or 0.8%, closing at 3,080.82, its loftiest finish since March 4, and the Nasdaq advanced 56.33 points, or 0.6%, to finish at 9,608.37, representing its best closing level since Feb. 20.
Stocks rose Wednesday after data from Automatic Data Processing showed private-sector employers shed 2.76 million jobs in May, following a decrease of 20.2 million in April. Last month’s fall was much less than the 8.66 million job losses expected from economists polled by Econoday.
“We’ve been pretty amazed at how far we’ve come, and how quickly we’ve come,” said Matt Parker, a portfolio manager at Intrepid Capital Management in Jacksonville Beach, Fla. “We can see both the bull and bear cases from here,” he said in an interview with MarketWatch, pointing to skyrocketing unemployment, but also unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus as backstops.
i have a little spare cash , but probably not enough if it is a massive drop , i guess it depends on which share prices drop savagely
the drop in 2018 wasn't incredibly exciting for me
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are off 20 points. S&P 500 futures have fallen 8 points. Nasdaq Composite futures are off 10 points. Next up for U.S. investors Thursday: jobless claims, to be released around 8:30 a.m. eastern time.
Overseas, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is up 0.2%. But Europe’s FTSE 100 and Germany’s DAX are down 0.3% and 0.7%, respectively in Thursday trading, even following the ECB’s announcement.
Still, despite the minor pullback, the recent stock market rally has been impressive. The S&P, for instance, has gained back 77% of all its losses from the February high. The Index sits just 271 points below a new high watermark.
And the stocks hardest by the Covid-19 pandemic are the ones doing the best lately. Casino stocks rose about 8% Wednesday. And most are higher again Thursday despite the weakness in stock futures. Las Vegas Sands (ticker: LVS) stock is up 1.9% in premarket trading. Wynn Resorts (WYNN) shares have gained 1.7%. MGM Resorts (MGM) shares are 5.5% higher Thursday morning.
" Many analysts have warned that banks could face a sharp rise in bad debts around October this year when lenders start requiring customers to resume repayments and government support is withdrawn. "
" Banks have effectively been providing an unprecedented stimulus to the economy during the pandemic by allowing home and business borrowers to take 6 month loan holidays."
" Many households have also been seeking relief from rental payments and a variety of other bills including electricity and phone payments."
" The jobseeker and jobkeeper programs are due to wind down in September."
Could be what is keeping the stockmarket running as anybody with spare cash, in this period of bill payment relief, may be putting it into buying shares with the hope of selling at a profit just prior to when bill payments return come August September ?
Can you hold onto your cash until August when share holders are going to start selling and forced to sell no matter what the price ?
Another couple of months ?
Don't know if these time-frames and stimulus apply to the dow or any other country though ?
Worth reading again
" The government has signalled it could remove JobSeeker payments early for businesses that have bounced back from the coronavirus earlier than expected.
Finance Minister Mathias Cormann said the program would be reviewed in July ."
Could be good for other things as well.
Could July be the month ?