1. 4.8k
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    Looking as strong as a bull so far today.

    1 like
  2. 29.0k
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    buy in gloom sell in boom just put some shorts on..with stops...

    1 like
  3. 29.0k
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    Wealthy Americans ready for recessionROBERT GOTTLIEBSEN
    Follow @BGottliebsen
    Top end sales at the Pebble Beach Concours d'Elegance were muted earlier. Picture: AP
    Top end sales at the Pebble Beach Concours d'Elegance were muted earlier. Picture: AP
    7:23AM AUGUST 30, 201937 COMMENTS
    America’s wealthy are scared and they have slashed spending on everything from homes to jewellery. But the US middle class is spending so obscuring the wealth differential in retail sales.

    In Australia the spending differences between the rich and the middle class are not as severe, but we may be heading in the US direction.

    And it’s possible that Australia’s Evans Dixon group did not realise that wealthy Americans would stop buying high-priced property, which contributed part of its massive $44 million loss on US residential real estate.

    READ NEXT

    US OPEN TENNIS
    Coco mania grips New York
    COURTNEY WALSH, TOM CRYSTAL
    With the help of CNBC, let me describe what the American wealthy are doing, and why. And then we will discover that there are non-real estate signs that Australia’s rich are going the same way.

    America’s high-priced real estate is having its worst year since the financial crisis, with unsold mansions and penthouses accumulating in places like Aspen, Colorado, and the Hamptons in New York.

    Manhattan has experienced six consecutive quarters of sales decline. In the US, homes priced at $US1.5 million or more fell 5 per cent in the second quarter.

    But mansions aren’t the only thing affected.

    At the famous Pebble Beach car auctions, the most expensive vehicles faltered on the auction block, but cars priced at under $US75,000 sold quickly.

    Retailers selling to the wealthy are being hard hit, with Barney’s filing for bankruptcy and Nordstrom recording three quarterly declines in revenue. In contrast, those selling to the middle class, like Wal-Mart and Target, are reporting stronger-than-expected traffic and growth.

    In the first half of 2019, sales at Sotheby’s fell 10 per cent and Christie’s auction sales were down a thumping 22 per cent.

    What’s causing this?

    Some of the US real estate slump is a result of tax changes. But the cause goes much wider. The wealthiest 10 per cent of Americans own over 80 per cent of shares in the US, so they are far more sensitive to the recent market swings.

    Many wealthy Americans also own companies that do business overseas or have foreign exposure, so are feeling uncomfortable. Accordingly, the wealthy are hoarding their cash, so the savings of the rich have more than doubled over the past two years. And the fact that returns on this money are minimal increases their reluctance to spend -exactly what is happening to savers across the board in Australia.

    The American middle-class consumer is in a different position to the rich. They may have a mortgage that benefits from low rates and they are being buoyed up by strong employment and a relatively stable housing market at the lower levels.

    In contrast to the trends of the past decade, it’s America’s Main Street that is prospering, while the wealthy are signalling a consumer recession.

    In Australia while real estate is booming, the “Mercedes-BMW” index of high end consumer confidence is a faltering. Mercedes sales in July were down 15.4 per cent, while BMW Australia was down 21.8 per cent. While that fall is part of a total decline in the motor market, it’s a warning.

    Unlike the US though, escalating Australian real estate prices will boost the confidence of the rich.

    In America the top 10 per cent of earners account for nearly half of all consumer outlays, so if their spending falls further, the broader economy could start to feel the pain. It represents a significant threat to US economic expansion and helps explain why recession forecasts are so prevalent.

    No one will understand this better than President Trump, who is in election mode. Both China and the US have good reasons to organise a trade war truce. Yet as the sharemarket turmoil of August comes to an end, Wall Street has started to rise. It sniffs a pending truce.

    ROBERT GOTTLIEBSENBUSINESS COLUMNIST
    Robert Gottliebsen has spent more than 50 years writing and commentating about business and investment in Australia. He has won the Walkley award and Australian Journalist of the Year award. He has a place in t... Read more

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  4. 3.6k
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    I also saw a seperate article recently.....can't remember where....but luxury car purchases in Australia have declined sharply.....And in this case, was far more than the general slump in auto purchases.....Sign of the times.....for the smart money.....

    What I find funny in the above article....Australian 'real estate is booming'? LOL.....where?

    2 likes
  5. 4.8k
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    Bryce Edwards
    @BryceEdw
    LME #Nickel just exploded

    1 like
  6. 29.0k
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    WSA will boom monday

    1 like
  7. 69.8k
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    Australian 'real estate is booming'? LOL.....where?

    probably flippers ( reno investors ) jumping early ( out to the sidelines )

    1 like
  8. 29.0k
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    one of the biggest ponzie scheme is aussie housing

    2 likes
  9. 69.8k
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    it is all about commissions ( and taxes )

  10. 4.8k
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    Markets are rotating out of Bonds, no value with negative and near negative rates.

    1 like
  11. 4.8k
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    6500 a buy for the Bulls IMO

    1 like
  12. 29.0k
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    s&p in a big flag pattern up target old high down target 2700 mkt is winding up for a decent move

    1 like
  13. 29.0k
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    New car sales plunge in August as loans dry up
    Simon Evans
    Simon Evans
    Senior Reporter
    Sep 4, 2019 — 12.00pm

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    New vehicle sales in Australia plunged by 10.1 per cent in August as buyers struggled to obtain finance for cars, extending an industry-wide malaise which has gripped the sector for 17 consecutive months.

    New figures out on Wednesday from the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries (FCAI) showed the downturn was across every segment in August, with passenger vehicles down 17 per cent, SUVs falling by 5.4 per cent and light commercial vehicles sliding by 8.6 per cent.

    New vehicle sales have been going backwards for 17 consecutive months. Luis Enrique Ascui

    FCAI chief executive Tony Weber said tighter lending by banks and financiers had become a big issue for the industry.

    "The question needs to be asked about whether the current regulatory approach to financing is appropriate, and if not, what harm it is doing to both the sector and the economy more broadly,'' he said.

    Martin Ward, the chief executive of car dealership group AP Eagers said on August 29 that one of the biggest reasons for the slowdown in new car sales across his company was the sharp contraction in lending by banks and financiers.

    RELATED QUOTES
    APEAP Eagers
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    AHGAutomotive Holdings
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    The FCAI's Mr Weber said there was a general lack of consumer confidence both in Australia and internationally. House price falls over a lengthy period had initially sapped confidence."There's no doubt it is a very tough market at the moment,'' Mr Weber said.

    The FCAI figures showed that total new vehicle sales for August dropped by 10.1 per cent to 85,633 vehicles, compared to the same month last year.

    Sales in New South Wales slipped by 9.2 per cent, while in Victoria the decline was even larger at 11.7 per cent.

    Queensland suffered a 9.5 per cent drop, South Australia was 12.3 per cent lower, and Western Australia fell 8.7 per cent. Tasmania was the only state or territory to show an increase, of 2.0 per cent.

    Even the most popular vehicle in Australia, the Toyota HiLux ute, took a hit in August, with sales down by 14.1 per cent. The Ford Ranger ute, the No.2 model across the entire market, also suffered a decline of 9.5 per cent.

    Mr Ward said last week that around 95 per cent of new and used car buyers needed some form of finance for a vehicle and many were being knocked back for loans.

    That much tougher credit availability had been triggered by crackdowns by the Hayne royal commission and the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, which had also been scrutinising add-on insurance and flex commissions paid to dealers.

    Mr Ward said an upturn in new vehicle sales would only likely occur once credit availability improved.

    “Customers who never would have any trouble getting finance are now having to jump through so many more hoops,” Mr Ward.

    AP Eagers, which is close to finalising a $2.3 billion all-scrip merger with rival Automotive Holdings Group to create an industry leader with 12 per cent of the new car industry, suffered a 17 per cent slide in profits to $41.7 million in the six months ended June 30.

    AP Eagers told the ASX on Wednesday that it had now secured 74.2 per cent of the shares in AHG. The offer is scheduled to close on September 16.

    Toyota was the biggest selling brand in August with a market share of 19.5 per cent, followed by Mazda and Hyundai, each with 8.5 per cent.

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    TOPICS
    Australian economyAP EagersAutomotive Holdings
    Simon Evans writes on business specialising in retail, manufacturing, beverages, mining and M&A. He is based in Adelaide. Connect with Simon on Twitter. Email Simon at simon.evans@afr.com
    Simon Evans
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    1 like
  14. 4.8k
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    Buy in Gloom sell in Boom.
    HK withdraws extradition Bill, one of the 5 protestors demands.

    2 likes
  15. 29.0k
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    Still in bear flag

    2 likes
  16. 4.8k
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    Ran into resistance at 6625 today

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  17. 4.8k
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    HK heat off the boil with removal of extradition legislation, and China trade talks back on for October, XJO trades upoff 6500 correction level

    2 likes
  18. 4.8k
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    XJO 6650 showing up as Resistance here, for the Bears. IMO

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  19. 29.0k
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    sept /oct are crash months ..imo stock mkts are trading on bs central bank BS

    2 likes
  20. 4.8k
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    Irrational Exuberance on the open this morning at 6686 ahead of Friday 13th Full Moon for the lunatics.

    1 like
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