1. 29.6k
    Posts

    turn date tomorrow..short with stops imo

    2 likes
  2. 3.4k
    Posts

    Oil VIX up over 4% yesterday.....with Bolton shown the door....I would have expected the OVIX down around 10%.....Very odd......Maybe the Saudis are about to make a move.....or pay Pakistanis to do it......

    1 like
  3. 3.9k
    Posts

    Saudis are trying to keep the oil price up ,with production slowdown , for their Aramco float.

    2 likes
  4. 29.6k
    Posts

    agree %110 all rigged for float ..there is a glut of oil

    1 like
  5. 3.4k
    Posts

    Gvenso...this is a religious issue.....not an economic one.....They want to kill off Iran...badly....And Iran feels the same....Saudis will not ever allow a Shia Yemen on their southern border....ever. The hatred between the two far exceeds the importance of any Aramco float......For now, I expect the Saudis are lining up reliable munitions supplies with the US and others, bolstering their AWAC capability with US assistance, and getting layers of spares organised for their mix of fixed wing aircraft and naval vessels.....Obviously Trump is not interested in doing Iran....but the Saudis, and a new friend in Israel, are getting ready - willing - and able....I don't have a lot of confidence in RSAF pilot bravery - although I have to say - there are some that will go all the way - like a Japanese......But I do have extreme confidence in the IAF.....Their bravery is unquestioned and they will all die to defend their small nation against the barbarians.....But more likely, they will destroy all targets - and return home safely due to honed skills and national courage.....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xLhCvjF7nss

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJN4U2GbRAI

    But someday the Arabs/Iranians may have to fight the men:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-t-e6k-47D0

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nrOris7OPUI

    Never mind, the Arabs and Iranians....will ALWAYS lose......Allah awaits...with horny goats.....as the reward for being stupid.....

    2 likes
  6. 29.6k
    Posts

    shorts from here with stops

    1 like
  7. 3.9k
    Posts

    Small shotrterm 6675 short here, stops over tonites highs.

    1 like
  8. 3.4k
    Posts

    We are nearing the end of the biggest dead cat bounce I have seen....I notice the ASX was more subdued than I expected yesterday - interesting show of intelligence.....LOL....Anyway....expecting the next couple months will send Santa to the South Pole......for a couple years......

    1 like
  9. 29.6k
    Posts

    wed fed day is s&p forming double top has the 2940 gap to fill be careful watch bitcoin chart wise big move coming

    1 like
  10. 3.4k
    Posts

    DJIA is virtually DT now and the NASDAQ is getting close to the mark.....I think the strength of this bounce is very very over-bought.....Don't really too care much but the amount of economic destruction in the next couple years - there will be some beyond the control of all of us, but it will have a lot of influence on what we do with our own super.....I am tending to cash in a lot of super (fixed interest now) when I feel real estate has truly bottomed ( am thinking Feb-March) and taking advantage of our recently rezoned block to plant a couple houses on it, move on and downsize elsewhere.....Maybe here, maybe the Philippines....maybe Japan (just got a nice part-time job with a major Tokyo corp starting next month - based in Australia for now..arigato nei......get paid in yen...another good thing).

    I wouldn't worry about crypto-currencies......they just don't have the full volume to actually mask a trend.....

    1 like
  11. 3.9k
    Posts

    FOMC Wednesday to cut or not should have some affect on the future direction.IMO

    1 like
  12. 29.6k
    Posts

    plus Saudi blow up will interesting .s& p has the 2940 gap to fill

    2 likes
  13. 66.6k
    Posts

    the old mantra is

    sell in May and go away

    come back ( English ) St. Ledger Day

    ( which was either this weekend or next weekend )

    ( any turf fanatics still posting here ?? )

    when supposedly the 'smart money ' is coming back from a nice holiday to re-enter the market ( at cheaper prices )

    ( none dare call it manipulation ... no how many get caught rigging it )

    for conspiracy deniers this is all probably just another amazing coincidence

  14. 3.9k
    Posts

    Saudi market closed down 1%

    1 like
  15. 29.6k
    Posts

    2940 gap s&p min target double top has formed oct is crash month??

    1 like
  16. 29.6k
    Posts

    It may be time for helicopter moneyALAN KOHLER
    Follow @AlanKohler
    Under Mario Draghi, the European inflation rate has declined from 2pc to 1pc and growth has fared no better. Picture: Getty Images
    Under Mario Draghi, the European inflation rate has declined from 2pc to 1pc and growth has fared no better. Picture: Getty Images
    6:27AM SEPTEMBER 16, 2019
    66 COMMENTS
    There was a quite interesting bit of central bank action last Thursday, and no, I’m not talking about European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s swan song 10 basis point rate cut – to minus 0.5 per cent - and the restart of quantitative easing.

    It was the Central Bank of Turkey’s decision, on the same day, to cut its benchmark rate by 325 basis points to 16.5 per cent.

    It was new governor Murat Uysal’s second board meeting. At the first, in July, the bank cut the benchmark by 425bp, from 24 per cent. His predecessor had been sacked by President Erdogan for not cutting interest rates, and five days before last week’s second cut in succession by the new bloke, the President uncannily predicted it.

    READ NEXT

    London reinvents itself
    TICKY FULLERTON
    But that’s not what was interesting – it was that both President Erdogan and Governor Uysal asserted that easing monetary policy would bring inflation down.

    That same day Mario Draghi began his press conference with the more conventional proposition that the proposed easing would get inflation up “robustly … to a level sufficiently close to, but below, 2 per cent”. Or at least that’s the plan, still.

    Needless to say, when it comes to the operation of monetary policy we are more inclined to pay attention to the outgoing head of Europe’s central bank than the incoming head of Turkey’s.

    Having said that, the ECB’s lamentable record of getting inflation up suggests that maybe it’s time to try the Turkish method of central banking.

    In July 2012, Draghi set off a three-year, 50 per cent global stockmarket rally when he said: “The ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough.”

    In the seven years since, the ECB’s policy rate was zero for two years and negative for five, and much money was printed under the heading of quantitative easing, yet the European inflation rate has declined from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. Growth has fared no better.

    Will Thursday’s package of measures do the trick? Unlikely. What got the Euro up a bit during the Draghi press conference was that it became another “whatever it takes” moment, except that this time it’s, in effect, “as long as it takes”.

    But it’s all rather forlorn, as are the Reserve Bank of Australia’s efforts: after 14 rate cuts over eight years, the inflation rate here has declined from 3.3 to 1.6 per cent. GDP growth has fallen from 2.5 to 1.4 per cent.

    It’s time, you would think, for central banks to stop messing about with the diminishing returns of rate cuts, and buying bonds from banks so that long-term interest rates decline even more than the cash rate, and doing something more direct – such as printing money and handing it out.

    It’s called “helicopter money”, and is starting to gain traction in respectable circles, at least in Europe, but before getting into that, perhaps we should examine what’s wrong with 1 per cent real GDP growth and 1 per cent inflation.

    It’s not a recession and it’s not deflation but given the way central banks the world over a behaving, you would think it was.

    There are two problems with it, one practical, one theoretical.

    With global debt approaching US$250 trillion, more than three times global GDP, the only way this is going to be reduced without massive disruption and hardship is through inflation, and capitalism requires economic growth in order to work, because its foundation – investment – requires a return, and because the pie needs to grow if the inequality inherent in capitalism is not to cause social breakdown.

    So independent central banks, concerned with more than their narrow mandates, are stolidly trying to get both growth and inflation up. Unhappily what they’ve been doing hasn’t worked.

    The Draghi/Lowe/Powell method is to just keep doing it. It will be interesting in that context to see whether Draghi’s successor, Christine Lagarde, is inclined to just keep leaning on the same lever.

    The other lever is labelled “helicopter money” and it’s not that different to the quantitative easing they have actually been doing, and RBA Governor Dr Lowe has started talking about (while adding that they’re not about to start doing it).

    QE involves printing money and buying government bonds from banks to give them cash. Why not just give the cash straight to the government? Presumably because central bankers don’t trust politicians, although why they would trust bankers more is a mystery.

    Anyway, fair enough, politicians are not to be trusted with printed money. They might get used to it, and take control of the printing presses by passing a law that ends central bank independence.

    In that case, is the current suggestion gaining increasing support, just give the money directly to the people – deposit cash into everyone’s bank accounts.

    As Moritz Kraemer, chief economic adviser of Acreditus, a risk consultancy headquartered in Dubai, wrote in a recent article, the central bank could “commit to making a monthly transfer to every euro-area citizen with a checking account, until inflation hits 2 per cent. It could apply a sliding scale, adjusted monthly, by paying €200 into every account if annual inflation stands at 1 per cent or below. This payment would be reduced by €20 for every 10 basis points beyond 1 per cent, reaching zero upon inflation hitting 2 per cent”.

    Now that’s what you’d call unconventional monetary policy, but at least it would work.

    Cutting interest rates certainly doesn’t.

    Alan Kohler is Editor in Chief of InvestSMART.com.au

    ALAN KOHLEREDITOR-AT-LARGE, THE AUSTRALIAN BUSINESS REVIEW
    Alan Kohler is one of Australia’s most experienced commentators and journalists. Alan is the founder of Eureka Report, Australia’s most successful investment newsletter, and Business Spectator, a 24-hour free b... Read more

    Share this article
    Facebook
    Twitter
    Email
    Related stories
    Moving into black swan territory

    READ NEXT

    Music tells a digital story
    No industry was more damaged by new technology, so learn from us.
    DAN ROSEN

    Boris owed Britain better
    Britain’s former leader, David Cameron, deplores the Brexiteers’ glib political culture.
    DAVID CAMERON

    Newsagent home delivery ends
    Newsagents around Sydney and parts of NSW are being asked to stop home deliveries of newspapers from next year.
    ANDREW WHITE

    Pell’s last hope for early release
    Lawyers for George Pell are set to seek special leave to appeal in the High Court this week in what will be his last chance of early release after being convicted of child sex charges.
    JOHN FERGUSON

    Great War to Great Ocean Road
    Diggers just home from World War I embarked on a 13-year quest that would leave a second mark on the nation after Gallipoli and the Western Front.
    TESSA AKERMAN

    Paradigm shift for osteoarthritis drug
    An Australian-listed company is creating a buzz among larger global suitors.
    SARAH-JANE TASKER
    66 COMMENTS
    Reader comments on this site are moderated before publication to promote lively, but civil and respectful debate. We encourage your comments but submitting one does not guarantee publication. You can read our comment guidelines here. If you believe a comment has been rejected in error, email comments@theaustralian.com.au and we'll investigate. Please ensure you include the email address you use to log in so we can locate your comment.

    Hi Kerry

    1 like
  17. 3.9k
    Posts

    $53.2 Billion In QE Lite: Fed Concludes First Repo In A Decade Amid Liquidity Panic.
    While the Fed did not disclose how many banks participated in the operation, it is safe to say it was a sizable number. Worse, the result from today's unexpected repo operation, we can now conclude that in addition to $1.3 trillion in 'excess reserves', a Fed which is now cutting rates and will cut rates by 25bps tomorrow, the US financial system somehow found itself with a liquidity shortfall of $53 billion that almost paralyzed the interbank funding market.
    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-has-lost-control-rates-again

    1 like
  18. 29.6k
    Posts

    red lights flashing s&p double top??

    1 like
  19. 3.9k
    Posts

    Shorted AUD /USD and XJO this morning on open

    1 like
  20. 29.6k
    Posts

    Low or negative returns for years, even decades': World Bank chief warns of steeper global growth slowdown
    By Jeff Kearns
    Updated September 18, 2019 — 7.49amfirst published at 7.45am
    Share on Facebook
    Share on Twitter
    Send via Email
    Normal text sizeLarger text sizeVery large text size
    World Bank president David Malpass said the global economy is poised to decelerate more than previously estimated, with the pile of negative-yielding debt indicating growth will be slower in the future.

    David Malpass: “The global economic outlook, in both the near- and long-term, is confronting substantial challenges.”
    David Malpass: “The global economic outlook, in both the near- and long-term, is confronting substantial challenges.” CREDIT:BLOOMBERG

    "The slowdown in global growth is broad based," Malpass said Tuesday in a speech in Washington. Recent developments signal the 2019 world expansion will likely to fall short of the lender's June projection of 2.6 per cent in real terms, Malpass said. The nominal growth rate appears poised to slow to less than 3 per cent - "a big letdown" from the about 6 per cent pace in 2017 and 2018, he said.

    Roughly $US15 trillion ($22 trillion) of bonds with zero or negative yields indicate that investors accept "the market's premise of very low or even negative returns for years, even decades," he said. "This frozen capital implies slower future growth."

    The comments by Malpass at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, his first major public address since taking office in April, come as the global economic outlook dims ahead of next month's annual meetings of the bank and the International Monetary Fund. The fund is preparing to update its growth forecast in the new World Economic Outlook, after reducing the projection, already the lowest since the financial crisis, in July to 3.2 per cent this year.

    Advertisement

    Chinese slowdown
    Malpass said the global slowdown is apparent in China's deceleration, also noting "substantial downturns" in Argentina, India and Mexico, plus "disappointments" across the developing world.

    Play Video

    Should we be worried about recession?
    Play video
    2:00

    Should we be worried about recession?

    Scott Morrison has responded to concerns about the state of the economy as house prices in Sydney and Melbourne creep back up but forecasters predict economic activity for the year to June to be disappointing.

    Parts of Europe are in recession or close to it, with Germany and the UK seeing a quarter of contraction, while Italy and Sweden have experienced "several quarters of stagnation," he said.

    Large amounts of capital locked into low-yielding bonds with historically tepid rates of capital investment imply that growth, "especially in developing countries, will remain slow as current capital stocks deteriorate and are exhausted," he said. "That's a challenge for the World Bank."

    Central banks worldwide have been grappling with how to respond to weaker growth as US President Donald Trump's trade wars add to uncertainty confronting consumers and businesses. The Federal Reserve in July cited the implications of global developments for the outlook as they cut interest rates for the first time in a decade. Officials are expected to again reduce borrowing costs Wednesday.

    RELATED ARTICLE
    The last time Robert Shiller heard stock-market investors talk like this in 2000, it didn't end well for the bulls
    WORLD MARKETS
    'I have seen this happen before': Nobel prize winner sounds an economic warning
    Add to shortlist
    Bank and fund leaders meet in a big year for leadership changes atop the sister institutions. Malpass, previously a senior US Treasury official, was selected in April for a five-year term. World Bank Chief Executive Kristalina Georgieva, meanwhile, has been nominated to succeed Christine Lagarde as IMF managing director after she left to lead the ECB.

    Trump nominated Malpass in February, choosing a supporter who'd criticised China and backed a shakeup of the global economic order. Malpass previously portrayed the lender as inefficient and reluctant to cut funding for developing countries that grow into dynamic emerging markets.

    Bloomberg

    Share on Facebook
    Share on Twitter
    Send via Email
    INVESTING
    MOST VIEWED IN BUSINESS
    'I have seen this happen before': Nobel prize winner sounds an economic warning
    'I have seen this happen before': Nobel prize winner sounds an economic warning
    Add to shortlist
    Public warned to check super as young mum charged over $10m scam
    Public warned to check super as young mum charged over $10m scam
    Add to shortlist
    No 'Netflix tax' on way: NBN Co floats new high-speed plan and discounts
    No 'Netflix tax' on way: NBN Co floats new high-speed plan and discounts
    Add to shortlist
    Netflix, Spotify, Woolworths? Supermarket launches subscription service
    Netflix, Spotify, Woolworths? Supermarket launches subscription service
    Add to shortlist
    Bonus pay slashed for BHP boss after worker's death
    Bonus pay slashed for BHP boss after worker's death
    Add to shortlist
    Qantas chief Alan Joyce tops CEO pay table
    Qantas chief Alan Joyce tops CEO pay table
    Add to shortlist
    Advertisement

    Advertisement

    1 like
Your browser is too old for TopStocks and not secure. Please update your browser