Canada Core CPI m/m December 15 2021

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    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the price of goods and services from the consumer's perspective. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

    A higher than expected reading is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading is negative/bearish.

    Historic deviations and their outcome

    August 18 2021 Today we saw a solid 0.3 positive deviation which gave a good 20 pip slow move before it retraced.

    Check out the price action here:

    July 28 2021 A minimal 0.1 deviation from forecast on the headline Core CPI M/M with a 0.3 conflict from the secondary line Core CPI Y/Y we saw a seven pip move inline with the headline before retracing and carrying on with the pre news trend. Not trade for me.

    Check out the price action here:

    June 16 2021 There was no deviation from the forecast on the headline Core CPI M/M. We saw a 0.4 from the secondary line Core CPI Y/Y; however, there was no impact on the price action.

    Check out the price action here:

    I will use forecasts of:

    CPI (M/M) 0.4

    CPI (Y/Y) 4.7

    Today's trade plan

    Today, I will need a 0.3 deviation from the forecast in either direction from the headline CPI M/M (month on month), including supporting deviations of 0.1 in the same direction from CPI Y/Y.

    We also have US data at the same time today, so I will only trade on EURCAD to avoid conflicts with other data.

    Tradable pairs


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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