CellOS IPO Future
This is for all good fellow CellOS shareholders to focus on the bright FUTURE of the co, all the way to IPO and beyond.
Please share on info updates about CellOS, both business and tech wise, including the IPOs of other tech companies so that overtime we can better benchmark our own IPO - especially when official data emerges on CellOS performance.
No moans and groans about the past please! Its all about the FUTURE now!
Let me get the ball rolling by sharing something someone forwarded me just this morning. Some of you may have got it as well.
Pardon the symbols, but this is truly the first bit of &$@£¥€!! GOOD PUBLIC NEWS!!
I just googled MapR, and its going for its own IPO next year. Meaning their revenues will be way up and CellOS will be pulled (yes, willingly!) along with it. What a great partnership this would be!!
Not conversant in all the techie bits, but just reading the news release above and then about MapR and then relook at CellOS website info, and one does get this sense of a great partnership convergence of two forefront 'big data' giants to-be. In the long term all the gold dust will rub off one another.
Anyone with more info on MapR or the partnership, please share!
Cellos IPO is definitely on the right track.
Cisco will be retrenching 5500 staff (previous reports put it at 14,000!) in the coming months. Cisco is profitable and doing pretty well, and its share price is riding high.
So why retrench?
Because Cisco realizes its traditional highly hardware-based business is maturing rapidly with eroding volume and margin, and it wants to re-configure itself towards a significant IoT (Internet of Things) entity - hence it needs to re-skill and re-populate itself significantly with IoT analytic and software expertise.
So, CellOS with our IoT focused priority is definitely down the right track and is ahead of even giants like Cisco in the areas we are already good in and those we are already developing on and will be good in. We could be adding Cisco into our stable of significant partners in time to come (or maybe it's already in the works?).
And by the way, Cisco is already part of MapR's partner ecosystem and so is CellOS now!
Can CellOS IPO stack up to Twilio IPO?
Twilio (cloud communications platform co) IPO-ed two months ago on 23 Jun 2016, with still the uncertainty of the Brexit vote hanging in the air.
IPO priced at $15, but opened at $23.99 and closed at a high of $28.79 within the first day. A whopping increase of 92% in a day!!
Valued at $1.23 bil (based on $15 and around 82 mil total shares, and 10 mil shares offered for trading), the valuation ballooned to at least $2.3 bil by the public by end of day one!
And guess what? Twilio is not even profitable yet! It’s 2015 revenue was $167mil, but with a net loss of $35.5mil. But its revenue almost doubled from 2014. I did not find any indication of Twilio’s projection – when it is forecasted to be profitable, and what its growth would be like (although one site put a conservative $350mil revenue for 2017). Clearly, knowledgeable (hopefully so, but not always) shareholders are not buying into its short term value, but for its longer term growth prospects.
CellOS Software on the other hand, should already be YTY profitable by the time it IPOs – so, already profitable AND with longer term growth prospects. You draw your own conclusion, folks.***
And what is Twilio’s share price as at 18 Aug 2016? An amazing $54.40! With a public valuation of now $4.5 bil. 360% hike in less than two months!! (In fact a few days prior, it actually peaked at $59.34).
**Caution: IPO share price depends on the valuation, the total number of shares that exist at that point, and how many are offered for trading, amongst other factors. We do not as yet know how many shares will there eventually be at CellOS, especially when new funds had to be raised to re-float the ship, and as yet there is no formal valuation CellOS Software as a business entity. How volume traders value shares when traded, also depends on a number of performance factors, plus growth prospects and a range of existing environmental factors, plus of course perceptions, sentiments, and hype. ***
CellOS Software - IPO or Trade Sale?
Apart from an IPO, don't forget CellOS Software could also potentially go the route of a Trade Sale.
Simply meaning, some existing big cash-rich player finds that CellOS offerings have strong synergy for their own business growth or strategic leap-frogging. This would be a "strategic buyer" (say .... Cisco?!) who is willing to pay significantly above the valuation.
It could also be a deep-pocketed "financial buyer" who is coming from a mainly investment viewpoint, seeking to buy high earlier and cash-out even higher at some future values.
In either case, there would be a shareholder voting process to determine the outcome. And of course, only if CellOS is great enough to attract offers (which it will!).
It is also possible that one or more institutional investors offer to buy up a sizable portions of the shares (based on some valuation plus pricing) from current CellOS shareholders (willing buyer, willing seller basis), prior to IPO being initiated.
All options have pros and cons for buyer and seller (see link below). Main thing is, CellOS Software must continue to do great business with fantastic products with a strong capable management with the required level of integrity, focus and transparency - then all options are on the table.
This all good news ken, the only downside to cellOS is jason huber, once he is out of the equation then everything should go well, i don't see any major company buying into a company which has court cases outstanding. The sooner its finished the sooner we move on, the current board are doing a wonderful job despite jh.
Absolutely agree Sheggi. Just that we as investors should know it for what it is and put the ongoing court cases in perspective. If you have read the court filing documents, the case in favour of CellOS is evident, and the case against JH is also evident. It is just a process that needs to run its course and I don't see any reason at all why the conclusion should be other than what is obvious, right and legally sound. Failure of fiduciary duties, especially one that not only involves incompetence, but gross and calculated greed and dishonesty, is taken very seriously by all jurisdictions that want to ensure an open and safe business and investment environment. What more, when the evidence is all laid out as it is.
Having lawsuits (for a host or reasons) with initial founders are actually not that uncommon in the business world, and such companies do eventually go on to IPO or trade sale. Sophisticated incoming parties, whether strategic or financial, will be able to evaluate things for what they are, and will not stay away purely because of a court proceeding. It may actually be seen as a good thing - a thorough house-cleaning with all the rot removed and rebuilt even stronger. A house that has fallen apart and then rebuilt (even though the rebuilding work and the removing of the rot is ongoing at this point in time) may be more valuable than a house that may look good but has not been renovated for a long time.
It is obvious to me, the main thing is still the ongoing and future business value of CellOS Software's great products that really matter. Court case - just need to be done; the sooner the better, but it is what it is, so let the current management and lawyers deal with it.
more good news for cellOS, nice to know that we are doing so well, beginning to look amazing, can't wait for kamlesh to send out the latest details of what cellOS is up to, i hope he puts in lots of data we can use.
Ken558, I agree with your comments, start ups usually walk a tight rope and can topple any time. There initial founders tend to take dangerous risks to keep their businesses going, many fail and fall away. Those companies that have come close to failure and bounce back are the ones to latch onto. Unfortunately those that were involved at the start are rarely those that reap the benefits at the end. This is for many reasons incompetence, timing, outside forces, pride and greed are usually the main offenders. JH should be commended for seeing a vision with this company(CellOS), without his involvement at the start it would never have gotten to this stage, he walked that tight rope raising funds to keep his dream alive. Unfortunately as the dream looked like a reality his greed took over and as the funds started to flow in his motivation took a new direction.
However, he employed good people to run his business and develop his dream, and no one should dispute how bringing the right people in at the right time has been fortunate. Here though, is where he fell over, he should have left the management to those who knew what to do. JH was an investment banker not a software engineer or telco guru, he did not fully understand the complexities of the business. Pride caused him to make some really bad choices, these mistakes took the company to the brink of collapse, some might even say the grave was dug and the company had fallen in. Fortunately some investors who have a strong belief in resurrection rallied together and the company has now stepped out of the grave and begun the journey to higher ground. I'll tell you more later, this story has a long way to go and you won't want to miss the end.
I peronally would love to know more, i have spoken to people who put their hard earned money into cellOS on jasons bequest only to be ripped off 100%. I was told of one occaision where he borrowed money to put into indoaust and then went on a big family holiday abroad, he found a vessel to have a lavish lifestyle and he kept it alive as much as he could, if the company had been liquidated then shareholders would have had to take him to court themselves and maybe he might have got away.
Astrov – right on the money. Guess it did not cross anyone’s mind back then that JH does eventually live up to his acronym kin, JEKYLL & HYDE!
The takeover in Aug 2015 was nail-biting and the timing was absolutely serendipitous. CellOS was truly at the thinnest of razor’s edge to being wound-up, which was probably the intent of evil greedy Hyde, bringing down the efforts of Jekyll and team, while Hyde would scheme and profit from the collapse.
Now that the tide has turned, and CellOS phoenix is ever rising from the near ashes, do not forget that both Jekyll and Hyde will still profit handsomely on IPO day if (and that is an ‘IF’) JH still has the shares he has. I suppose Jekyll may deserve it, but Hyde will unfortunately have his share too.
But what really matter is, all the shareholders will now make it!
Let’s check out an impressive Aussie tech IPO in Dec 2015 – Atlassian. Could CellOS a few year from now match it or even surpass it?
My vague understanding of their respective technology offerings (those who are knowledgeable please verify) is that the long-term breadth and depth of CellOS solution offerings (though not the same) is more enduring than that of Atlassian’s.
Atlassian’s share price surged 32% on IPO day from $21 to $27.78, raising its valuation to $5.8bil by end of day (some months prior it was valued at $3.3bil).
6 months before IPO, it’s annual revenue was $320mil (doubled from previous year) and profit at $6.8mil (a margin of only about 2% or so). I believe it is highly reasonable to expect CellOS margin to be much better than that at IPO, with a larger profit figure. So, again, you go figure guys.***
Two weeks (29 Dec 2015) from Atlassian IPO the share price peaked at $31.10 (48% above IPO). Then it dipped to below $18 in the next two months and bounced back to a high of almost $32 early Aug 2016 (two weeks ago).
Atlassian did very well, but yup I think CellOS will do even better. Speculative, but with good basis.
***Caution: IPO share price depends on the valuation, the total number of shares that exist at that point, and how many are offered for trading, amongst other factors. We do not as yet know how many shares will there eventually be at CellOS, especially when new funds had to be raised to re-float the ship, and as yet there is no formal valuation of CellOS Software as a rising business entity. How volume traders value shares when traded, also depends on a number of performance factors, plus growth prospects and a range of existing environmental factors, plus of course perceptions, sentiments, and hype. ***
All businesses (indeed everyone single being too) experiences risks at every stage. Whether start-ups, rising stars or steady state, understanding and managing risks is a must. Risks are nothing more than uncertainties – which can give rise to threats and/or opportunities.
The rollercoaster saga of CellOS Software as a business entity exemplifies the effects of risks and their management and mismanagement all too clearly.
It is timely at this juncture to do a simple risk analysis of CellOS, and create a basic CellOS Risk Profile in these twelve fundamental areas of business risks:
1) Environmental Risks
2) Market Risks
3) Legal Risks
4) Management Risks
5) Investor Risks
6) Financial Risks
7) Competitor Risks
8) Customer Risks
9) Organizational Risks
10) Cost Risks
11) Supplier Risks
12) Product Risks
Quite a handful! To remember these 12 areas, just remember this endearing phrase,:
“Everyday, My Lovely Mother Insists Father Cuts, Chops Or Cooks Sweet Potatoes.”
(There is also an X-rated version, but I let you figure it out yourself ☺ )
1) Everyday (Environmental)
2) My (Market)
3) Lovely (Legal)
4) Mother (Management)
5) Insists (Investor)
6) Father (Financial)
7) Cuts (Competitor)
8) Chops (Customer)
9) Or (Organizational)
10) Cooks (Cost)
11) Sweet (Supplier)
12) Potatoes (Product)
Note that the 12 areas while different, may also have overlapping areas, so we shall not get too technical as to which risk belongs to which area.
Also, as far as CellOS is concerned, we can only look at them qualitatively, since at this point very very little quantitative info is available, and we also don’t want to get stickily statistical about it.
To make it easier to digest, I’ll discuss it one at a time, post-by-post, in the order as above when the mood catches me. I am just an interested invested-investor and definitely no expert in any area, so do please add-share-contribute as we go along!
CellOS Software Risk Profile: (1) Environmental Risks
Environmental risks refer to any broad natural or human-specific trends that could significantly affect the viability of a business organization. Typically these could be about the green movement, geo-physical factors, political sensitivities or divides, current and future tariff impacts, social awareness trends, or any sort of significant trends – of which an organization could be on the right or wrong side of, or neither.
For instance, if you are in the Energy business, then environmental risks is a huge thing and will get only huger. If you are into seaside bungalows, then you better know 7000 houses will be lost to the rising sea in Britain alone. If your business relies on having to protect tons of personal data, then you better understand the growth capabilities of the hacking environment.
CellOS it appears has mainly neutral environmental risks (as most software businesses are, but not all), and perhaps on the plus side given the rise of IoT and the tendency for all governments (regardless of political slant) to support and even drive IoT in their own domains.
From a simple scale of -5 (great great threat!) to +5 (great great opportunity), I would rate CellOS at -1 to +2 for Environmental Risks.
Ken558 as much as I have gone along with your post about CellOS and its past and present direction, I tend to think that readers aren't all that interested in geo physics and political sensitivities. You are obviously a very intelligent person but the truth is that readers want to know more about whats going on in CellOS and when they can see returns on their investments, Putting JH behind bars is also important but not our main priority. Your topic is "CellOS IPO Future" and I sense you're going to take us through all 12 of your mothers fundamental points. Can I request that you don't, those of us that are interested in CellOS are already in, we are not contemplating coming in, we are here and looking for our exit strategy. So there is no need to sell us on how good the product is or how suited it is to the market it has been developed for, we know all that. Write a book and I will buy a copy but please don't fill these pages with your educational material.
Astrov - like you, I too would very much like to know current and projected facts and figures about CellOS, but that can only come from the current management, when they are ready to reveal whatever they find relevant to reveal. But I only represent myself here and no one else.
Writing this helps me to clarify my thoughts and understanding of the strengths and weaknesses about CellOS. Eventually I, like all shareholders, will have to decide how many shares to sell or to hold, and this will be of some help. If someone else finds it helpful then good, if not its of course not obligatory reading.
If you got something new to share about CellOS, here or in your own thread, I'd very much like to read that. I will continue writing whatever I find useful, and so should you. And everyone reads or not whatever they like. Cheers!
What l said was " l'll tell you more later" not meaning l have anything new to offer now but when l hear something then l will share. What l can say now to keep other shareholders feeling positive is that we are only a few days away from celebrating a miraculous event. 12 months ago Cellos was down and out, but on the 3rd of September Cellos got a transfusion it has now recovered and looking great, staff are happy, investors are seeing a bright future and the court proceedings are winding up( public record). The later is something which has been worth the wait. The lawyers have been working very hard, this has involved trolling through countless documents, texts', emails, minutes of meetings and contracts. The affidavits that have been and are being prepared for the Courts are highly detailed and extensive( open to public record). These have been and l expect, any new ones, will also be damming to JH. As much as l would like to see him behind bars sooner than later you can understand the benefit of the lawyers taking their time and how complex the matter is.
Like most investors l would like to see an early end to this so CellOS can get on with doing what it does best, we don't want the lawyers to rush a case through hoping the judge takes our side. The goal is to make certain that the judge has no choice other than to award in CellOS's favour. From the evidence that is surfacing each day, l am lead to believe, our prospects of success continue to rise.
We are due for another newsletter (3rd quarter) and l am anticipating some very good news.