Copper Higher..

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    Copper Rises on Higher Chinese Car Sales, IMF Growth Forecast

    By Anna Stablum

    July 9 (Bloomberg) -- Copper rose in New York and London as Chinese car sales gained and an International Monetary Fund forecast for stronger-than-expected growth boosted investors confidence that commodity demand will rebound.

    Chinas car sales last month advanced the most since February 2006, buoyed by government stimulus spending. The average car contains 2 kilometers (1.2 miles) of copper and alloy cables, according to the International Copper Study Group. The IMF yesterday said the world economy will expand 2.5 percent next year, compared with a previous estimate of 1.9 percent.

    Were going to see a little bit of a bounce because of the slightly less negative IMF numbers, said David Wilson, an analyst at Societe Generale SA in London. We will continue to see reasonable sales figures in China.

    Copper for September delivery rose 4.65 cents, or 2.2 percent, to $2.2055 a pound on the New York Mercantile Exchanges Comex division at 8:32 a.m. local time. Copper for three-month delivery added 2.7 percent to $4,850 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange. The metal dropped 7.1 percent in London in the prior five sessions.

    The global transport industry consumes about 11 percent of the worlds refined copper, 32 percent of its aluminum and more than 50 percent of global lead output, according to Fairfax IS.

    Copper has advanced 58 percent this year, bolstered by demand from China, including for stockpiling. The Asian nations imports of unwrought copper rose from 232,700 tons in December, to 422,670 tons in May, according to customs data.

    Chinese Copper Buying

    June numbers are going to be reasonably high, Wilson said. They will reflect buying from at least a month ago, and a lot of the restocking has been done for now, he said.

    Copper earmarked for delivery from LME-monitored warehouses has declined to 4.7 percent of total stockpiles from 21 percent at the start of May.

    Prices are likely to weaken in coming weeks as Chinese imports soften, Alan Heap and Alex Tonks, analysts at Citigroup Inc., said in a report yesterday. However, the depth and length of the slowdown is likely to be moderated by investment buying, they said.

    Citigroup raised its forecast for next years average price of copper for immediate delivery by 52 percent to $2.50 a pound, or $5,512 a ton. The bank increased its 2011 prediction by half to $3 a pound, or $6,614 per ton.

    Aluminum, Tin

    Among other LME metals for three-month delivery, aluminum rose 1.5 percent to $1,573 a ton. Alcoa Inc., the largest U.S. aluminum producer, reported a second-quarter loss yesterday that was smaller than analysts estimates after production cuts and workforce reductions helped the company save money.

    Klaus Kleinfeld, Alcoas chief executive officer, said yesterday he expects government economic-stimulus spending in China and the U.S. to boost metal demand enough to help the company start generating cash again. Chinas measures pushed domestic aluminum demand beyond supply for the first time since the recession forced producers to curtail output, he said.

    Tin slipped 0.3 percent to $13,250 a ton, extending yesterdays 7 percent drop, which was the biggest slide since Jan. 29. Stockpiles monitored by the LME rose to 17,750 tons, the highest since August 2003 and more than double the level at the start of 2009.

    Open interest in tin, or the number of futures outstanding, rose 1.6 percent to a record 37,305 contracts yesterday.

    Nickel gained 0.6 percent to $15,041 a ton, lead rose 1.2 percent to $1,630 a ton, and zinc advanced 0.7 percent to $1,517 a ton.

    To contact the reporter on this story: Anna Stablum in London at astablum@bloomberg.net

    Last Updated: July 9, 2009 08:46 EDT

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&;sid=av7L07op_Ik8

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    Interesting the mention of Citigroup's forecast for next year..:D

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    Copper Rises for Second Day on Speculation Demand May Improve

    By Anna Stablum

    July 14 (Bloomberg) -- Copper rose for a second day in London, for the first time this month, on speculation that demand will strengthen as Chinas economy expands.

    The economy in China, the worlds biggest copper consumer, may have expanded 7.8 percent in the second quarter, rebounding from the weakest growth in almost a decade, a survey of 20 economists by Bloomberg News shows. China will release gross domestic product figures July 16.

    The markets are quietly optimistic, David Thurtell, an analyst at Citigroup Inc. in London, said by phone. China is the big daddy in the metals market.

    Copper for three-month delivery rose $90, or 1.8 percent, to $4,985 a metric ton at 10 a.m. on the London Metal Exchange. The metal, mainly used in plumbing and wiring, is rebounding from two weekly declines. Copper for September delivery rose 2.1 percent to $2.2685 a pound on the New York Mercantile Exchanges Comex division.

    Copper has advanced 62 percent this year in London, bolstered by demand from China, including for stockpiling. Inventories in warehouses monitored by the LME have shrunk 53 percent from their peak on Feb. 25.

    The gains may be capped after U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said in a speech in Saudi Arabia that the global economy probably will suffer setbacks during its recovery as nations adapt to a loss of wealth and a surge in public debt.

    The U.S. economy will take one step forward, two steps back for yet another few months, Citis Thurtell said.

    Investor Confidence

    German investor confidence unexpectedly fell in July, suggesting the recovery in Europes largest economy may take longer to materialize. The ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim said its index of investor and analyst expectations decreased to 39.5 from 44.8 in June. Economists expected a gain to 47.8, according to the median of 36 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey.

    Among other LME metals for three-month delivery, aluminum rose 2 percent to $1,592 a ton. Tin added 2.9 percent to $12,650 a ton, nickel gained 3.7 percent to $15,280 a ton, lead advanced 1.3 percent to $1,575 a ton, and zinc jumped 2.2 percent to $1,479 a ton.

    To contact the reporter on this story: Anna Stable in London at astablum@bloomberg.net

    Last Updated: July 14, 2009 05:19 EDT

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&;sid=adX1PZoXE34g

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    Copper Climbs to One-Month High as Sales, Output Signal Rebound

    By Anna Stablum

    July 15 (Bloomberg) -- Copper rose to a one-month high in New York and London as U.S. retail sales beat forecasts and European industrial production climbed, signaling a recovery in the global economy.

    Retail sales in the U.S., the largest copper consumer after China, increased 0.6 percent in June, the biggest jump since January, the Commerce Department said yesterday. Output in the euro zone climbed 0.5 percent in May, the first gain in nine months, the European Unions statistics office said yesterday, adding to signs that the worst recession in more than 50 years may be easing.

    Copper is still looking strong, Andrey Kryuchenkov, an analyst at VTB Capital in London, said by phone. People are still looking for proof of the green shoots theory. Industrial production wasnt that bad in the euro zone.

    Copper for September delivery rose 3.3 percent to $2.3740 a pound on the New York Mercantile Exchanges Comex division at 8:17 a.m., after reaching the highest intraday price since June 15 at $2.3785. Copper for three-month delivery rose 3.1 percent to $5,200 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange, after climbing as high as $5,219 a ton.

    Copper has advanced 69 percent this year in London, bolstered by demand from China, including for stockpiling. The Dollar Index, a gauge against six other major currencies, fell as much as 0.9 percent today to a two-week low, making dollar-priced metals cheaper to other currency holders.

    The dollar has moved significantly and that is helping the metals prices, Eugen Weinberg, an analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt, said by phone.

    Output, Inflation

    The Federal Reserve today is likely to report that U.S. industrial production fell at the slowest pace in eight months in June. Output at manufacturers, mines and utilities decreased 0.6 percent, the smallest projected drop since production rose in October, according to the median forecast of 73 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

    A separate report from the Labor Department today may show consumer prices rose 0.6 percent from May, the biggest gain in almost a year. Prices paid to U.S. producers increased last month by twice as much as anticipated, it said yesterday.

    The copper market moved into so-called backwardation this week for the first time since May 1, with metal for nearby delivery trading at a premium to three-months. The spread increased to $21 yesterday, from $3.5 the previous day.

    Inventories in warehouses monitored by the LME have shrunk 52 percent from their peak on Feb. 25. Today, stockpiles rose for the first time in seven days, to 261,100 tons.

    Focus on Tin

    Among other LME metals for three-month delivery, tin added 2.1 percent to $13,200 a ton. The premium on near-month delivery surged to $150 a ton yesterday, double the level a week ago.

    LME data shows one long position, or bet on a price rise, exceeds 40 percent of tin contracts to expire in September. There are six short positions, bets the price will fall, for the same month, each accounting for between 5 and 9 percent and one position accounting for between 10 and 19 percent.

    Stockpiles monitored by the LME rose 1 percent to 17,870, the highest since August 2003.

    Zinc jumped 2.7 percent to $1,536.75 a ton. The zinc market recorded the first deficit since September 2008 in May, the International Lead & Zinc Study Group said today. The surplus was 178,000 tons for the first five months of the year, it said.

    Aluminum rose 3 percent to $1,654 a ton, nickel gained 2.3 percent to $15,925 a ton, lead advanced 2.8 percent to $1,639.75 a ton.

    To contact the reporter on this story: Anna Stablum in London at astablum@bloomberg.net

    Last Updated: July 15, 2009 08:28 EDT

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&;sid=aFilvPBgFRac

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