futures/cfd ideas

  1. 1.8k

    i just rec'd a message asking for some quick ideas on where to start if going from stocks to other instruments.....if anyone would care to add (constructively) to the effort i'm sure it'd be much appreciated......

    i would preface this by saying know yourself, your own quirks, your level of speed in interpreting data and the real knowledge you have based on your results from trading stocks.....if you feel or know you have deficiencies in trading stocks you'll amplify those weaknesses in any leveraged instrument.......ime, trading any unorthodox instrument requires a rigid understanding of the market your in and flexibility, imagination on how the other players on the opposite side of your trade are thinking and positioning themselves

    this is the reply:

    youre going to need a lot of study and suggest you pre-start with a dummy account ......you need to decide what instrument you want most, i commend eyeing a single instrument that you can study rather than randomly going over different opportunties.....you need to decide what kind of contract you want, for example, the ES, YM, CL, DX or a cfd.....i suggest a platform where you can role back the leverage like the CMC tracker......you need to know that cfd indicators are all but useless especially when you get into the lower time frames.......so best you have two charts, one a bourse/DMA feed and the other the cfd chart in the same time frame......ok, that's the basic mechanical stuff, you know, like money management, pos sizing .....but that's not the key to good/safe trading ......so, the key is to understand when and by whom the major activity is being conducted.....it's a double edge head game......if you approach incorrectly you'll fall into the self inspection psycho-babble trap (oh my i'm so undisciplined) or you'll fall into the traps set by the players who are much bigger than you.....a lot of trades are made purely on someone elses understanding of your own propensities......in other words, most traders lose because they get faked out or even fake themselves out......

    if youre going to trade an instrument like the ES you'll need a decent feed and platform like ninja or IB, Xtrader etc or if youre going to trade an instrument like the SPX then you'll need to have some volume which you can't get on cfd platform from someone like marketvolume.com which gives clear insight into exhaustions and divergence (not as an indicator)

    if youve never studied VSA then it'sa start, but beware of these types of regimes of study as they can tend to make you think inside a rigid box.....

    anyways, some ideas.....

    be well and merry hippopotomass

    1 like
  2. 1.8k

    i'm going to keep adding to this thread, so if it's not your cuppa simply elect to "ignore" the thread

    this is a reply on another site i recently posted and it gives you an insight into my thinking of which i am damned quick to change my stance when i am clearly wrong:


    as for not all indicators are useless, well, true, they are a feel good reason to make a trade and with enough discipline can do "the" job so then that defines the extent of your income......so, sure, this indicator, proprietory or otherwise, can do the job but the extent of your income is restricted by that and no, indicators do not lower your risk and they do raise your time versus task....i don't trade with indicators and am fortunate that someone taught me the virtues of reading flow, tape and intent as per the ingredients of the instant soup.....trading is not like carpentry....it's like a grunting rugby match where the guy running toward you, at pace, drops the left shoulder then fakes right.....the trend is when the front forward pack steamrolls everyone and its in fluid motion not boxed like an indicator.....indicators are from a period when you could make a call in a bull phase and get away gratis and never know you had made the biggest fake look honest.....so, if you want to be imprisoned by an invented rule or regime then that defines the extent of your income.....nothing wrong with that if that's all you are interested in achieving......

    when you use an indicator your asking someones invention to ring the bell for you, it's a cover for your lack of knowledge and interpretation......nothing wrong with that....but, beware.......i see a lot of traders say the same stuff and i know they'll empty their accounts even if theyre not already in the process of doing so....."nothing wrong with indicators" it's them fishing for real answers.......it's them quick-venting to box price action like a carpenter would approach the task......there's no such thing as right or wrong in an auction.....only extent

    1 like
  3. 1.8k

    some basic rules:

    Be fully funded, i mean, really have good capital size, not some piddly 2 grand.....real money ......the reason retail accounts are referred to as weak money or scared money is because the retailer puts too much on for the size of their own account and because they already have an account that's underfunded they then get blown out of their positions......has a lot more to do with losing than to do with being right about trend.....a trader who has a large size account can survive for a very long time especially if they pare back the leverage.....the basic bottom line is if you lose your account you cannot trade and while that sounds simple enough many do not take on that simple idea......

    again, keep honest with yourself, do you really have enough.....how much is enough, that's up to you but if it's under 10 grand youre kidding yourself if youre new to the game you'll simply get killed and i know if youre reading this and youre new youre likely have a sneaky little ego that's waiting to go into battle on low level of knowledge.......

    i cannot stress to you strongly enough the need to be correctly funded......yes, risks this games is about risks, true.....so, take the next step and the game is about consequences

    thou shalt not kid thyself

    .......Be fully funded

    1 like
  4. 120

    Should at least spend a couple of weeks on a demo account finding new and interesting ways of blowing up your account. MF Global size leverage is a good start.

  5. 7.6k

    Keep it going joules, when your finished I'll tell you what I think...


  6. 1.8k

    To trade by example must mean you are following someone or some regime

    follow someone who is clearly making money

    youre in this to make money

    seems simple enough.......

    ....you wanna hang out in a chat room, great, but, if youre doing that youre not trading youre socialising and you ideally need to be with someone who is above your level of experience and market/instrument knowledge......

    trading is a profession not a sport

    spend as much time as you can in your down time following those who you know are making income from this game.....you need to get where they are in their concept of the trade and their time point of view.....is this going to work for you in your own time pov

    so, allocate correct/appropriate time frames to your study and chatting

    as a key, spend energy on deciding what is the best time frame to trade in

    again, know yourself, don't fall into the boredom trades, that's what scared money does very well.....

    be fully funded with time

  7. 1.8k

    this ones a tuff one

    you either come to the table with honesty in everything you do or you are not a trader

    i dont care who you are

    i dont care if youre opinion is coated in honey from a greek god and spiced with a lyricists sheen......i know one thing is true and all traders who stick around long enough know that the market finds you out, the truth of your knowledge and your natural speed of interpretation and reaction

    honesty and ego are at odds with each other

    honesty allows you to forgive yourself very quickly for your mistakes and the faster your turnaround time the faster your repositioning in how youre reading the trade and how you take on more knowledge or improve your understanding

    your ego cannot do any of the above

    ego is different to confidence and nearly all good consistant traders i have followed or watch trade are confident which is another way of saying they are relaxed within their knowledge of the trade set-up and of themselves

    self awareness is a vital key, how tired you are, how angry, how frustrated, excited, how prepared, how well funded is your account, whom are you (are) listening to......

    i've blown several accounts, the size of which, for most newbies and even pros would make you lose your lunch......

    honesty keeps your ego in check.....that's it......you practise the good things often enough the crap things begin to lose their grip on you.....this is a fairly simple game in that respect......not easy, simple!

  8. 1.8k

    these posts are a contribution to our site

    i'm not a tutor

    this post is simply to get some thought processes going.....anyone can pick up a book and read about trading, patterns, lines, position sizing, money management, intra market theory this or stop-trigger break-out that blah blah blah.....and while a system of positive expectation is good for protection, as protecting your capital is your number one job, what you dont want to do is to give away time (versus task)or get bled to death by a thousand cuts

    you'll often read my posts ending with "just ideas"

    trading is often simply a group of people jostling with ideas......

    i like the word "ideas" as it it does not box price, other traders have opposing ideas, other traders have ideas to force trades in one direction with size, some wait for that action, some wait to see how an idea of one particular group is positioning itself

    this all sounds a little loose and non-specific to some people and they would rather have trading in a structured thought pattern, like with indicators, or grids, or different coloured profilers, graphs or the right group of charts........

    trader who take on fluidity, reject rigidity tend to survive longer and there is def a correlation of the extent of income they receive....this means getting outside traditional thought .....you can always step back inside traditional approaches once you have studied and proven when/where to employ those methods......what i am talking about is referred to as the art......call it reading tape or flow if you like......

    this comes back to that honesty thing, you know, how much knowledge do you really have? What are the parts youve proven are no good for you, or theyre too cumbersome to be of any income producing benefit (time v task).......after studying long enough you see that all that structured imposition is placed into predicting price direction eventually must open other doors and return you to the original, simplistic and (i argue) most basic questions : who is the other guy on the other side of my trade, what is he trying to achieve ?

    Charts do lie.....oh, yes, indeed they do and they do so mostly because we make them lie from our own perspective, our own training and our own rush to conclusion....a trader cannot see from a chart who is in the trade, who made the trade or who is awaiting to step on one side or the other.......paradise does not exist in a chart.....a chart is a summary of yesterdays ideas

    the very reason for failure of candle patterns, volume analysis, elliott, point n figure, channels, pitchforks, ichikoo park, whatever! the reason these fail is because the trader became lazy and reliant on them...the trader has decided that that knowledge was all they required......

    the very nature of price discovery is not within how we look for it but how well we allow others to show their hand to us.......

    again, just ideas

  9. 7.6k

    There is 4 things you need when trading.1. Trend Filter2. Entry Condition3. Exit Condition4. Position Sizing1. Trend Filter - 3 Moving Averages all pointing in the same direction, price must be below or above the moving averages to signal to look for a trade.2. Entry Condition - Stochastic indicator used to identify a retracement in price against the prevailing trend. Once price reach these levels, also look at the chart for other factors which will assist in increase probability of a successful trade. These factor are, a) previous support or resistance intraday, b) key price levels in the market typically at whole price numbers. Once price reaches a suitable level, use another stochastic to signal that price has finished the retracement. Then sell or buy, depending on if price is above or below all the moving averages, and if all the moving averages are pointing in the same direction.3. Exit Condition - trailing methodology based on price levels, fixed take profit levels based on next whole price number in the market, and take profit based on previous levels of support or resistance in the market.4. Position sizing - calculating how much you would like to risk per trade based on where your exit or stop loss is positioned,http://www.earnforex.com/position-size-calculatorfor currency trading this is useful.Trend Filter - Entry Conditions - Exit Conditions - Position SizingTrading.

  10. 3.1k


    Firstly i think you may need to have a good break away from the computer over XMAS.

    One of the biggest things IMO is instinct. You get this from getting down and dirty with the market, putting money on the line and trying to develop a few niche's of market knowledge.

    Opening a BS paper trading account wont give you any of the emotion of real cash, put $10-50k on the line and see what your pulse does. I dont trade often, maybe once or twice a month, generally closing a postion going nowhere- usually a speccie with a timeframe / % move that has or has not been realised and moving into another for the medium term (6 months), or, buying BlueChips for the long term.

    Of those that are short term they are generally high conviction trades because i have watched the company, the markets reaction to their announcments and they have a history of at least 7% swings. An example of such from me is VBA (VAH)

    As far as CFD's and leverage, i have been terribly tempted. I have a good sized cash position and each time i think of using some of it to leverage, i think why would i not put all my money on it....then the penny drops that it is not such a good idea...that i am putting that same amount in jeopardy by leveraging.

    Even for high conviction trades where i ccould almost guarantee a 7%+ move, i would rather keep developing my conviction based trades and slighlty increasing the captial per trade (as i have been doing) as there are many years in the market ahead of me.

    For charting i beleive too many indicators are just distracting, probably because i am a complete novice. I basically look at the company from 5-1 years and then 6,3 & 1 month charts with volume and bollinger bands.

    IMO, keep it simple, develop a few key indicators you understand, key market forces and drivers, know a few companies fundamentals and become familiar with them. I am no expert, just a guy looking for good ROE companies for the long term, and small trades ($5-10k) on the speccies on a tight leash.

    On the converse maybe try shorting BHP options with a CFD on T3 and let me know how it goes.

  11. 1.8k

    excellent, keep it coming


  12. 1.8k

    i've posted a few of these "just for the record" when i first came to TopStocks

    here are this mornings spx trades (this is the DJIA thread for futures/cfd ideas as opposed to ordinary publicly issued stocks)

    DealTime Trade ID Order ID Order Type Stock/Index You Bought (Sold) Price

    10:51:53 AM 296226555 296226555 Market SPX500 (50.00) 1,249.45000000

    11:05:02 AM 296230012 296230012 Market SPX500 20.00 1,247.75000000 *

    11:46:58 AM 296237202 296237202 Market SPX500 5.00 1,245.00000000 *

    12:30:17 PM 296242258 296242258 Market SPX500 (50.00) 1,243.69000000

    12:43:19 PM 296243770 296243770 Market SPX500 5.00 1,242.24000000

    12:43:31 PM 296243865 296243865 Market SPX500 5.00 1,241.99000000

    12:43:39 PM 296243925 296243925 Market SPX500 5.00 1,241.74000000

    12:45:50 PM 296244445 296244445 Market SPX500 5.00 1,241.49000000

    12:45:57 PM 296244498 296244498 Market SPX500 5.00 1,241.24000000

    12:46:20 PM 296244665 296244665 Market SPX500 5.00 1,240.99000000

    12:47:32 PM 296244966 296244966 Market SPX500 5.00 1,240.74000000

    12:47:41 PM 296245018 296245018 Market SPX500 5.00 1,240.49000000

    12:47:53 PM 296245086 296245086 Market SPX500 5.00 1,239.99000000

    12:48:00 PM 296245153 296245153 Market SPX500 5.00 1,239.74000000

    1:05:11 PM 296248852 296248852 Market SPX500 (50.00) 1,238.69000000

    1:15:54 PM 296250534 296250534 Market SPX500 10.00 1,237.74000000

    1:16:58 PM 296250746 296250746 Market SPX500 10.00 1,237.49000000

    1:18:52 PM 296251124 296251124 Market SPX500 10.00 1,236.99000000

    1:21:03 PM 296251497 296251497 Market SPX500 10.00 1,236.49000000

    1:33:16 PM 296254357 296254357 Market SPX500 10.00 1,238.49000000

    2:40:48 PM 296265580 296265580 Market SPX500 2.00 1,236.74000000 *

    2:41:49 PM 296265776 296265776 Market SPX500 1.00 1,236.24000000 *

    2:42:02 PM 296265836 296265836 Market SPX500 2.00 1,235.74000000 *

    2:42:37 PM 296266083 296266083 Market SPX500 2.00 1,234.99000000 *

    2:55:10 PM 296268754 296268754 Market SPX500 (50.00) 1,234.85000000

    2:56:47 PM 296269105 296269105 Market SPX500 10.00 1,234.41000000

    2:56:59 PM 296269146 296269146 Market SPX500 5.00 1,233.91000000

    2:57:06 PM 296269228 296269228 Market SPX500 5.00 1,233.42000000

    2:58:03 PM 296269441 296269441 Market SPX500 10.00 1,234.28000000

    3:00:15 PM 296269891 296269891 Market SPX500 5.00 1,234.15000000

    3:00:36 PM 296269985 296269985 Market SPX500 5.00 1,233.90000000

    3:00:48 PM 296270072 296270072 Market SPX500 5.00 1,233.15000000

    3:05:03 PM 296271361 296271361 Market SPX500 5.00 1,234.84000000

    3:16:36 PM 296273699 296273699 Market SPX500 18.00 1,237.30000000 *

    4:00:45 PM 296281287 296281287 Market SPX500 (50.00) 1,233.69000000

    4:01:19 PM 296281446 296281446 Market SPX500 (50.00) 1,233.46000000

    4:15:43 PM 296284381 296284381 Market SPX500 10.00 1,232.58000000

    4:15:55 PM 296284431 296284431 Market SPX500 10.00 1,232.08000000

    4:16:26 PM 296284560 296284560 Market SPX500 10.00 1,231.85000000

    4:17:47 PM 296284786 296284786 Market SPX500 5.00 1,231.60000000

    4:47:07 PM 296288493 296288493 Market SPX500 65.00 1,234.39000000

    those are all the trades and are all zero'd out (all the asterisk trades are from the (first) opening trade)

    all trades sizes are appropriate for the area of price i transacted and the time of year we are in and the players who'll be present......no indicators or oscillators were used, no trendlines....just left and right hemisphere

    the nett return was a little over 600 aud with one draw down a the last trade of the day....the amount of time at risk is low too

    you can see the emphasis is on a 'sell to open' basis and this was based on when the news peaked also the conversation surrounding these trades is in the previous DJIA thread with a chart attatched

  13. 1.9k

    Gidday Harry

    It is my opinion that Alan Kohler seems to be losing it. He sent out a news letter today saying get out of the market, its about to go down bigtime. His recent call on gold was widly wrong, and his call on the 2.5 % drop in the market tuesday was wrong as well, he blamed Europe, when , for that day only, it was about Korea. just wondering what your thoughts are.

  14. 120

    Plenty of reasons to be hedged or net short this market. CFDs have their use. Its all about being able to use the right tool at the right time.

    Say your an options trader who's got himself into a bind shorting a put of a stock you didn't really want to take delivery of. As implied volatility goes up so does the premium. You cant buy back the contract without substantial loss but you can hedge the position so that when you end up taking possession you can dump stock at market whatever price its trading at. No capital loss, keep the premium.

    Another situation,

    Big market moving event happens overnight. No problem short an index as I have done many times at 2 am. Hedge against your other long positions that are closed for trade.

    Thats all I have for now.

    Will come back with more, Later

    1 like
  15. 2.9k

    Some great contributions there J.

    I am on the road travelling for Xmas, and can not contribute unfortunately. Interesting looking at your trading and money management system. It provides thoughts on different methods and objectives, and just how 2 different people with the same targets, can go about execution in a completely different manner.

    Best Christmas wishes to all here, and lets continue this style into the new year. It surely can provide different outlooks for consideration by those interested.

    Cheers Riles.

    ps. inching very close now to the falling trend line above. Upper line of the triangle.

  16. 76

    From a post by HH.

    ***What I often wonder is if these guys are really FT DTS and good at it, then what the fark are they doing here posting price targets etc, surely a day trading business needs heap of attention and a massive amount of research ,hence you will see I have developed a very skeptical attitude towards some posters here who I think are having us on a wee bit .

    Investors I can understand hanging around talking other things than the market but why do DTS who run a full time DT business concern them selves with forums predicting prices to be proven right on methods used so much ,

    Sorry it just does not fit a normal business model to me and makes no sense.

    If trading was my full time occupation I would not waste my time on forums in market hours that is how I identify the good ones here IMO***

    Well, it makes perfect sense to me.

    I spent 2006 trading CFDs just about every day and I found that as one can't be too far from the screen, something that is not too distracting, but relevant (breaking news etc) to watch like T$ during the long periods of waiting for price movements has a calming effect.

    What I find mystifying is why a buy and hold person like CK, would spend 16 hours a day on a forum?

    I had a quick look at the amount of posts that HH has made over the three and a bit years he has been on T$.

    An incredible 11,311.

    He has been critical of myself in posting only 65 times in a longer period.

    On thinking about this, I did a quick calculation.

    Conservatively allowing about 25 minutes to read and reply to a post, you would be using about 5000 hours (most likely a lot more) to post over 11,000.

    That's about equivalent to 131 working weeks of your life.

    Just take a moment to think of all the things you could have achieved in three years of working time.

    Even spent on a computer, one could have finished a Degree, written a book, learned a new skill etc.

    Even if much of the time was spent while you were being paid to do a day job, it surely must effect your career and family life.

    To have spent that much time in a stock forum and not have even learned the benefits of using a trailing stop loss is I think time wasted.

    Time is money and if you work out how much 131 working weeks of your life is worth (assuming you are not retired like many of us) it's a lot of money.

    Here's wishing all T$ members a happy and safe break, may your time with friends and loved ones be spent well.

    1 like
  17. 3.1k


    I beleive to participate in the market in the manner in which you say would need to be a fulltime job, ie, 2am trading. In which case please continue to present your knowledge to the forum as it all helps.

    The only part i disagree with in your above post is this "Big market moving event happens overnight. No problem short an index as I have done many times at 2 am. Hedge against your other long positions that are closed for trade"

    5 down days in a row and your arse is open to Mr Market and your longs wont cover it unless they are far bigger positions than your shorts. Is there a ratio that you use when shorting your longs ?

    Buffett does arbitrage trading very well.

  18. 1.8k

    this thread is mainly on topic for cfd (and futures) for fx, indecies and instruments such as crude, metals and alike.......

    i've gone into honesty and encroached on the ego side of the trade outlook.....in the past i've asked 'can you explain that to me like i'm a six year old?' and i think there's a lot of false modesty and bravado in chat-site conversations and when you break them down to their bare essential ingredients they simply don't sit well for a trade practitioner, well, not in the scope this thread.......

    maybe they do in the scope of a buy-and-hold equities arena (caveats abound...) .......and already within this thread people have committed themselves to opining ideas that are likely to cause severe draw-downs and i am being as diplomatic as possible here as they may have many reasons for those opines and before you are to get to a trade you need to have as many bases as possible .......

    the point here is to ask the simplest questions and commit to asking them until you find the most effective questions......this idea is something i learned from a successful trader and he would repeat the idea to me over and over; ask the right questions

    a lot of traders get angry when they read that trading is very simple a large percentage of the time and that a great plethora of indicia is non-essential or that indicia is a ruse for lack of knowledge or that it can even blind-side the trader, chew up valuable time, make you a slave to a (or the) mechanic of trading......but essentially we cannot get away from the simple knowledge and truth that people make an auction ........yes, there is the whole hft debate and algo and alike.......have you noticed there is no algo that does all "conditions" of trade? The answer to the question of what stops any programmer from creating an algo that can trade every phase is because the algo cannot think beyond the programmer....programmers cannot think beyond one phase, but that's a hubris for another day......algos have their place and hft's have their place and my job is to see when that is and not forgetting that they are all bound in the arena that i am in regardless of the opinion of their purported advantage......in other words, they are also a slave to the auction in exactly the same way i am only they do not have the advantage of seeing beyond their programme and i am not bound by any criteria the way they are and algo's cannot reinvent the right questions to ask.........

    one way i used to know when it was either a time to take a break from the screen or to exit a position was when i had a question and the only way to get answer after all ideas were exhausted was to look at indicia.......you see, by not asking the right question and finding satisfactory answer to those topical questions then we must default to external propositions, you know, things that look backward, diagonal lines and cyclic things......

    i'm going to hark back to the idea of using a practice account in the absence of having a tutor (who's an income producing trader) and i hark back to practicing what works so that what fails falls away as bad habits do when not repeated.....enhanced good trade habits make us good traders, period!

    Perfect Practice Makes Perfect

    .....you see, if you don't know how to trade, that is, you have no proof youre a good trader (just look at your account!) then why risk your actual money? That's just dumb to risk real money on false bravado.......

    this is my contribution today for someone who has never traded "....cfd (and futures) for fx, indecies and instruments such as crude, metals and alike"

    here's a thought for you: the auction rules and regulations are a set event and slow to update, yet, the auction arena, or, precisely, the participants within, constantly alter their tactics and constantly update their ideas which is part of the reason i am satisfied with saying that trading is just ideas in print.

    No indicator can tell you when a ball game has changed (*) you are the filter for the indicator, so, you must opine upon the indicators data and you'll never know till after the event if you interpretation of the indicator is correct

    ......in other words, an indicator cannot lie...... an indicator can give you false dependency yet asking the right questions can make you, allow you to be, independent in your ability to instantly take on a different perspective and be in-step or in-tune with the auction as it unfurls.......please think about that for a while......i am not saying that idea like "it" is so and what i am asking you to do is to take that idea on as though it is true for other people and if it's true for other people then maybe that idea can work for you.......

    the childish question that most people need to ask themself is "how proven is my technique or understanding given how my account looks or has been performing?" .......given that more traders lose than gain in the futures market, well, you get the point.......

    (*) when i say no indicator can tell when a ball game has changed i am not referring to the way, say, a hft trade group might use volume build to trim 1/2 a point off an index in a sub 10 second play, as you are not a machine and as this thread was initially designed for first time traders then, so, to go down to that level of trade in this conversation is moot for the purposes of building a way of thinking or making a strong basis for a trade approach.......

  19. 1.8k

    the practise account v the live account (the difference between "well i wooda done it differently" and "i betta not do that with my real money" )

    today (27th dec) is a good to day for trading and training on my real account and i'm running tiny size as it's on gold cfd and the time of the year in which i'm on......there's a small advantage to low volume and the likely amount of size players who can trounce my position.....you'd think at first glance that less traders would make for wider swings.....well, not really depending on WHEN (at what time of the year) price is being discovered......so charts and indicia on a cfd platform are even less likely to be reliable as the tiniest volume swing can look like a significant series of trade exchange but really a single player with a very large account is simply bullying price or a single desk can be balancing a large position or drip drip arbitrage, any number of events like these can twist and distort indicia further than normal and force the mathematic to move so far that the indicia resets into a signal that is opposite to the cash price.....remeber all indicia is enslaved to price and not to people who are driving the price....in most cases indicia distorts ones view/interpretation because they are a boxed programme whereas price is fluid and always unbound(*)

    the practise account has the huge benefit of no risk so to get the one-step better result from a trading account is to think of it like a tennis player.....the best atp players often employ recently retired players to spa against......these retired players can still test the abilities and make the pro think/react and of course they can still become injured as a result.....nothing is ever risk free......

    to get the best out of your trading psyche (the equivalent a tennis pro's body)you need to engage the opponent by making the opponent unable to render you any harm and the best way to do this is to trade extremely small and plan the day ahead with the size parameters in mind yet clearly make or give yourself reason to think and feel the exercise as though it carries grave consequences for being incorrect in how you proceed with the trade(s).....clearly, if the pos sizing is so small so that you cannot be hurt then there is nothing at stake........so, you need to have something at stake that lifts the emphasis of accuracy or increases your attention to all the details required......in other words; to make you wake up and stop approaching the trade(s) as though youre special and stop you from feeling that you can trade anything at any time .....to rip you out of your comfort zone......you see, you cannot practise true engagement without having something at risk and tiny sizing does not feel (to most) like there is something at stake even though there is on a mathematical basis there is not on a fundamental basis for you the trader......

    ....so, what is the one thing that would add the same psych onus on you that you'll get when engaged in a large(r) sized trade? My suggestion to you first, is to be involved with a group of traders or trader that you know has more knowledge than you and has called trades out loud ....you'll need to ask what they would do with your trade idea(s) and would they even run with the idea.....so, to get the best out of your trade(s) while using the most minimal monetry risk your next best tool is your voice......call out your trade live.....that's it for most traders......you are going to risk being wrong in public and i know this is a huge undertaking for most people.......it's very easy to call a trade youre about to enter......what's hard is the exit part especially when the trade goes immediately against you as your whole thinking about the trade is naked and price doesnt lie so now youre immediately back to the wall in your approach......right at that moment there are a huge number of things at stake for you......

    there is a time-worn idea that i think has great merit even in the current malaise of cynical conversation and that idea is that a loser in an argument wins by accumulation of more knowledge as the technical winner does not learn anything of positive value yet the loser gains insights about themself, their lack of knowledge and their opponent.......even if you come away with the truth about the extent and depth of your knowledge you can at least go and source that missing knowledge or you can learn to ask the right questions to get the knowledge you need.....

    this post is merely an effort in how to get to the point where you are trading in practise time the same way you'll be trading in reality

    (*) price is always unbound unless traders decide otherwise and an indicator cannot tell you that.....an indicator cannot interpret or think for you it can only react within its own make-up.....

  20. 2.9k

    Just a quick pop in whilst travelling.

    OK to continue on to placing your trade. What is your plan, and how are you going to exercise it.

    J, you posted your trades the other day, and it was interesting to see your approach at profit taking. Whilst following the trend you were buying a larger parcel to run with longer. You took half of that large trade off with 2 small profits as price fell, and retained 50% for the cream. You then continued buying puts and selling them down in small parcels as the price continued down. Once exhausted, you replenished with a new large put, and continued selling that down in small parcel, and repeated again. In between, you sold off the 'cream' of the initial 50% put retained. This ensures retaining profits, and is a good example for a regular day trader to earn at least a set amount, or 'bread and butter'. Thats my interpretation any way.

    There are many different ways of applying a trade. My approach usually is to buy at a low risk point with a tight stop. I am not in the market as often. I then let all of my trades run for a longer period, moving my stop loss to first of all eliminate any loss, and from there to lock in profits. There are many versions that could fill pages here, but basically, I am trying to maximise on longer runs, and lock profits with the stop loss. Profits should be taken at first resistance, and then let the balance run to the next resistance. This version may vary according to volatility and the depth of the moves. If for example I feel that the targets are a good distance apart, I may actual accumulate early on when my first initial trade is in profit and locked in.

  21. 1.8k

    mister Riles....

    i trust you are well

    i do not have the chart covering that set...which is odd cos i like to refer to the date and recall the size and context of the moves......must be on the other machine.....if memory serves correctly i had on initial pos that i took to be my optimum energy release for that cycle (or for that day if you like).....i'm pretty sure i had summurised correctly the place to enter and that any move out of that price range upwards was a larger trend continuation, thus, what cannot be happening must become true (or if you like) there's strong reason to suggest that larger players would come in early and squeez short positions to and surprise everyone.....there's a good number of reasons for the larger accounts not to push aside from the accounts that are triggering on any topical news events......the time frame is important.....the longer the time frame, the lower the position size needs to be......with one position i am reading from that point of view all the time while seeing that where i thought a reverse swing would happen had me look at the lower time-frame bars and clearly see evidence that bars were quickly being covered and resold which calls for the larger time frame to stay short and the smaller time frames to be played on their own criteria......i would have exited those lower sells in whole trades if the lower times frames did not continue to roll......this is a little like russian dolls with money management thrown in......one eye on the high betas in their 60 second format and the other eye on the 5, 10 and 30 second spx chart and on the second screen the usual run of opinions from news/twits etc.....

    the main criteria entering the day is 'how far will major money allow price to come down until they decide this is the place to buy?' as they clearly were not selling to trend they were selling to clear desks and lower tier money was selling to take swings.......

    right or wrong, these are all my opines into the session......

    i'm asking 'what are the value zones given the time of the day/month we're in?'

    the pos sizing is very small ......as the number of zero's is not relevant in this instance and i am practising some momentum releases and being defensive precisely because of this calendar......

    mister Riles, youve gotten the ballgame fairly spot-on as you saw by the asterisk where i was thinking that there are some signals for a reversal but as the time frame is so low the signals are quickly reversed so its a little like first learning to drive with a mix of accelerator and clutch......

    running one exposure, or one trade idea, still allows separate ideas to run on the same instrument so you can go from one ball in the air to several balls........just make sure youre not being kicked in the.......you know.......

    an extension of the scale-in, scale out method without commiting all allowable capital in one session......scaling at different levels upon different time frames.......

    the people on the other side of the trade are not always the same at any given time of calendar and given the truth in that, that may also be true down to micro seconds......at some point within those micro seconds a game change is made simply because the people who have made the larger trend direction withdraw which is quite different to what is usually proffered in text books that there must always be stronger forces working against your position because if that were true there would never be any quiet periods.......so, what is not happening tells a valuable story as much as what is taking place......as we can only ever trade the right-hand side of the chart......

    on the 'perfect practice makes perfect' side of the convo i do not recall who i learned from that going over old trades, that are good trades and the accompanying charts, assists the subcon to replay the trades as though they are live as the brain does not differentiate between the reality of the present and your imagination when it's presented with tactile or precision images........i think it was Brett Steenbarger......an effective technique.....also, the brain is a drug-dependent beast ......the more you feed your brain feel-good results the more it wants the drug so the subcon moves you toward those things that gives the reward........

    i'm off to press the red button......peanuts anyone?

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