Hungary HUF Interest Rate November 16 2021
What does the data mean to the market?
The Hungarian National Bank Monetary Policy Committee's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the HUF - (Hungarian Forint), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the HUF.
Historic deviations and their outcome
July 27 2021 A small +0.1 deviation gave a nice 2-minute move on USDHUF and EURHUF, providing 150 pips total move. If you have a good broker with tight spreads, there were pips available from this event.
Check out the price action here:
July 21 2020 June 23rd 2020, We got a negative -0.15bps (basis points) cut to the interest rate which gave a nice slow move on USDHUF, with many opportunities to enter the market!
See the price action here
I will use forecasts of:
Base Rate Announcement 2.1
Today's trade plan
Today's official forecast is 2.1% which is a hike of 0.3%
There are varying predictions
Low is 1.95% to High is 2.7%
The Average is 2.18%
I am more cautious of buys as central banks worldwide are in a cycle of rate hikes so a sell scenario would be more of a shock. Therefore I am looking to take a sell if the actual is 2.0% or less. I will take a buy only if we see an actual of 2.5% or more.
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
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