Newspoll - is it fair dinkum ?
An interesting theory about the questionable veracity of Newspoll results is that Newspoll IS BEING RIGGED!!!!
However, the reason is probably not quite what one might guess. Newspoll is controlled by Mr Murdoch who is decidedly a CAPITALIST who would reasonably be expected to support the Coalition.
So the theory is that Newspoll is rigging the polls in favor of Labor to ward off the challenge by Kevin Rudd by artificially making the hopeless useless woebegone Miss Gillard appear less so.
Mr Murdock knows the same as everyone else that Miss Gillard is the Coalition's greatest election winning asset and that a change to Kevin Rudd would require a much different approach from the Coalition as Mr Rudd is a jolly good election campaigner even though he is not real good thereafter. So we can probably expect to see more "Labor gains" in the Newspoll depending on how bad Miss Gillard has been.
The other poll systems use different collection techniques and are not quite so directly controlled by an interested party and are more realistic.
The link between Newspoll and "Leadership Challenges" is discussed inhttp://thedailyderp.net/2012/06/24/leadership-challenges-and-newspoll/A run down of current pollinghttp://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/category/federal-politics-2010/The link discusses what the poll systems are really saying taking account of the random theory of statistics.
Sure, it would be great to lull Labor into a false sense of security thinking they had the numbers to win a general election ... we might get them to the polls early.
Luxbet has 4.85 on the general election between Jan 1 - Jun 30 2013 ... which seems a good bet even though the DPP has stalled on Slipper's Cabcharge dockets, and the fraud squad has Thomson's file in the bottom drawer marked Do Not Open.
From what we've seen of this farcial government, they're bound to shoot themselves in the foot again. Another Rudd challenge would be great ... we're all so bored with Labor's problems that more internal squabbles would ensure they sit in Oppostion for another ten years.
Luxbet is paying 1.11 for election in the latter half of the new year.
another theory, is there a plan to pressure a "compromise" plan of an ETS to replace the carbon tax ?? RM put the heavies on John Howard to lean that way , same outcome via different faces ,perhaps ??? at least one LNP member would support that possibly even the Greens (the real ones). NWS management will be friendly with ANY government in power . :)
Oh how predictable - Labor is sinking in its own smelly slimy cesspool of lies, AWU scandal, waste, incompetence, stupidity, corruption, etc and NEWSPOLL amazingly says LABOR is gaining in the POLLS!!!!!
Rupert is making sure that Mr Rudd is kept out of the PM job by telling fairy stories about the most useless incompetent miserable excuse for a PM ever seen in Australia.
The handful of pro-Labor residents must get tired of being asked by NEWSPOLL the same questions over and over again.
At least Rupert is helping the Coalition win the election!!!
Miss Gillard must be getting nervous talking about a Royal Commission in case the idea spreads to examining Union corruption.
LABOR'S FABIAN STUPIDITY = SOCIALIST SUICIDE for AUSTRALIA
Voters turn off Tony Abbott as character attacks bite: Newspoll
by: Dennis Shanahan, Political editor From:The Australian November 13, 2012 12:00AM
VOTER support for Tony Abbott has dropped to its lowest level since he became Opposition Leader three years ago, as the Gillard government's relentless attacks on his character take a toll on his standing with the electorate.
Less than one third of voters, 27 per cent, are satisfied with the way the Liberal leader is doing his job, and the highest number on record, 63 per cent, are dissatisfied with his performance.
Julia Gillard also continues her two-month lead over Mr Abbott as preferred prime minister - 46 per cent to 32 per cent.
Despite Mr Abbott's poor run on personal approval, the Coalition continues to hold solid primary vote support, 43 per cent, up from 41 per cent two weeks ago, while Labor's primary vote is unchanged on 36 per cent.
According to the latest News-poll survey, conducted exclusively for The Australian at the weekend, the Coalition's primary support is the same as it was at the last election and the ALP's is slightly below the 2010 election level of 38 per cent.
With Greens' support unchanged on 10 per cent in the last survey, the Coalition holds a narrow lead over Labor, 51 per cent to 49 per cent, on a two-party preferred basis using preference flows at the last election.
Labor has relentlessly targeted Mr Abbott's character and personality in recent months as it has attempted to lift its primary vote after the introduction of the carbon tax in July. The Prime Minister and other female ministers have accused Mr Abbott of misogyny and sexist behaviour, while Climate Change Minister Greg Combet has accused him of lying.
In an echo of the US presidential election, Labor and US Democrat strategists have discussed the plan to paint their opponents as negative and anti-women. Ms Gillard said the re-elected Democrat President Barack Obama was aware of her attack on Mr Abbott over misogyny.
Announcing on Friday that Australia was prepared to join a second Kyoto Protocol treaty to set new targets for cutting greenhouse gases, Mr Combet said Mr Abbott used climate change as a political weapon and everything he said about the issue had been "complete bullshit".
According to the Newspoll survey, satisfaction with Mr Abbott fell three points to 27 per cent in the past two weeks and dissatisfaction rose five points to 63 per cent. Mr Abbott's net satisfaction - the difference between satisfaction and dissatisfaction - is the worst it has been at minus 36.
Satisfaction with the Opposition Leader's performance is approaching the lows recorded by Malcolm Turnbull shortly before Mr Abbott replaced him as Liberal leader in December 2009.
Ms Gillard's personal support was virtually unchanged, with satisfaction on 37 per cent, up two points, and dissatisfaction on 52 per cent, giving the Prime Minister a net satisfaction rating of minus 15. On the question of who would make the better prime minister, Ms Gillard's support was 46 per cent, up from 45 per cent, and Mr Abbott's was down two points to 32 per cent.
Larry explains things a bit inhttp://jimunro.blogspot.com/2012/10/newspoll-has-problem.htmlEssential Research differs a bit inhttp://essentialvision.com.au/category/essentialreporthttp://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/voters-turn-off-tony-abbott-as-character-attacks-bite-newspoll/story-fn59niix-1226515481829
If the LNP change leadership to anyone other than Turnbull, expect Labor to go the polls early
If LNP change to Turnbull, expect Labor to wait and a long slow scrappy year of political argy-bargey ahead
Either way, expect a dirty campaign with any criticism of Juliar's failings in public office to be labelled as sexism
"An interesting theory about the questionable veracity of Newspoll results is that Newspoll IS BEING RIGGED!!!!"
Of course it is 'rigged'... As if 29% of people in Australia like Tony...
It must be getting harder to 'cook the books' that's for sure...
There must be all sorts of panic down at the Tonytalitarian Cyber Ghetto.
Not long now!