United Kingdom Core CPI y/y December 15 2021

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  1. 239
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    What does the data mean to the market?

    The UK's most important inflation data, it’s the leading central bank's inflation target. Recently the BOE has sighted this data as particularly important, so I think we should see a reaction from it.

    Historic deviations and their outcome

    February 17 2021 Feb 2021, +0.2 on both lines gave a small pop up, but nothing too exciting

    Check out the price action here:

    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/28912/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI4OTEyO3Q9MjAyMS0wMi0xNyUyMDc6MDowMC4wO3M9R0JQVVNEO3I9TTE

    January 20 2021 Jan 2021, after the Brexit deal, a +0.1 deviation did manage to get a slight market reaction.

    Check out the price action here:

    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/26395/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI2Mzk1O3Q9MjAyMS0wMS0yMCUyMDc6MDowMC4wO3M9R0JQVVNEO3I9UzE

    I will use forecasts of:

    CPI - Core (Y/Y) 3.7

    CPI (Y/Y) 4.8

    Today's trade plan

    If we get a deviation from both lines of 0.2 on either Year on Year line. with no conflicts on any other line we should see 15 - 20 pips.

    Tradable pairs

    EURGBP

    GBPUSD

    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

    1 like
  2. 82.0k
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    WOWEE , those forecasts look a bit conservative , James

    but i suppose you are factoring in some manipulation of the data

    good luck and happy hunting

  3. 82.0k
    Posts

    Fed's Decision Day, UK CPI Surge, China Sputters - What's Moving Markets

    https://www.investing.com/news/economy/feds-decision-day-uk-cpi-surge-china-sputters--whats-moving-markets-2712389

    *** 4. UK CPI surge puts rate hike back on the cards

    Traders flip-flopped yet again on their expectations for the Bank of England’s policy meeting on Thursday after inflation data for November showed the annual CPI surging 5.1%, well above forecast. The Bank’s senior figures hadn’t expected it to hit 5% until April, when a hike in regulated household energy prices takes effect. ***

    i hope you were on the right side of the UK trade ,James

    happy hunting

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