United States Crude Oil Inventories August 11 2021

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    What does the data mean to the market?

    The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

    Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

    There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.

    Historic deviations and their outcome

    August 4 2021 Very strong positive deviation. Unfortunately, Gasoline conflicted and it wasn't a trade for me, it was good to see a 45 pip reaction in favour of the Crude oil inventories however, this is not a risk I could justify taking.

    Check out the price action here:

    July 28 2021 Minimal deviations from both Oil and Gasoline, however nice to see a slow and sustained both in the direction of the news. It wasn't a trade for me.

    Check out the price action here:

    July 14 2021 I didn't set up for this event as other news factors pushed the oil prices down, It wouldn't have triggered regardless, and there was a conflict on Gasoline. The news did not move the price on this occasion.

    Check out the price action here:

    I will use forecasts of:

    DOE Crude Oil Inventories -0750
    DOE Gasoline Inventories -2000

    Today's trade plan

    If I get a deviation of -/+ 4000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and a supporting deviation in the same direction from Gasoline of +/- 1500, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.

    Tradable pairs


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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