United States Crude Oil Inventories December 15 2021

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    What does the data mean to the market?

    The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

    Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

    There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.

    Historic deviations and their outcome

    November 3 2021 Today we saw a small deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Only a small push in the direction of oil before it got blown off, just not strong enough deviations

    Check out the price action here:


    October 27 2021 Just missed my trigger today, with gasoline coming out as forecast it was nice to see a reaction in the direction of Oil however it wasn't a trade for me.

    Check out the price action here:


    October 14 2021 A sizeable deviation today with a supporting sizeable deviation from gasoline too, lovely move unfortunately it just missed my trigger.

    Check out the price action here:


    I will use forecasts of:

    DOE Crude Oil Inventories -1250

    DOE Gasoline Inventories +1500

    Today's trade plan

    If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil with no conflicts from Gasoline

    Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts.

    1) DOE Crude Forecast = -1700 (bb)

    2) API Actual Crude = -0800

    3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = +2500 (bb)

    4) API Actual Gasoline = +400

    Tradable pairs



    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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