XAUUSD & XAGUSD charting

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    I guess the charting forum originally was thought of to be a forum where TA can find a home!
    So let's try to have an ongoing TA discussion on as the heading says "Charting" and charting of the XAUUSD and XAGUSD in particular! I would suggest for everything else there on gold and silver there are the Gold and Silver forums!
    TA should be based on TL, chart or CS patterns, Fibonacci tools, Elliott Wave or what ever TA is commonly based on. To be sure you are within the rules of this thread means, that you are able to find an explanation of the tool, the chart or CS pattern, the indicator or oscillator somewhere on the internet. This is simply to make sure that anyone taking part in the discussion, would be able to either ask for a link or find it easily anyway, in order to do further research on what is/was used during the discussion. The use of wording/names should have the same or very similar meaning to what is used in any definition found on the net. Taking part in the discussion is not a competition, chart interpretations are just that, interpretations of what a member is seeing on his/her chart.

    Personally I would suggest to post links to charts as a minimum and time permitting possibly a chart also within the tread itself for a quicker reference. I will start things of with some charts from our, our as in MaxAction/Whispers, ongoing charting platform to show where in our opinion POG is as we speak. Weekly Chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/Ck0MiS2m/

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    Here we have the POG daily chart just to zoom in on where XAUUSD is sitting right now and to get things going.
    Personally I find it remarkable how the positive divergence, which is more clearly visible in the shorter term charts has been showing for some time now while POG is falling to new lower lows almost on a regular base.
    Daily chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/swJ0dJiy/

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    Oops I missed inserting the daily, but here it is: https://www.tradingview.com/x/swJ0dJiy/

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    Here is the 2H chart zooming in even further, which clearly shows the before mentioned positive divergence between the Price action and the action within the RSI and the MACD: https://www.tradingview.com/x/nGElCUJs/

    We have a simple wave count in here, which may or may not be correct, but hey that is what this thread is all about, discussion, sharing and looking out for each other and keeping one another on the ball, because some of us will base trading decisions on what is discussed here. But remember when it comes to trading it is only you who pushes the buy/sell button so you had better do your own research beforehand!

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    Nice charts.

    I love self-similarity in markets. Like I've shown before. Still on track.

    http://invst.ly/2wlvl

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    Now I have gone to the 30M chart https://www.tradingview.com/x/y3J8CDqd/ , where I see 2 possibilities right now. Either we are looking at another possible triangle, the last one didn't eventuate, or another bullish flag (black TL). I guess Mr. Market will let us know in good time, but it doesn't have to stop us from having an opinion, discussing it or even be preparing for a possible trade!

    MaxAction earlier today mentioned likely down target as part of this correction, one being the backtest of the breakout line (pink) or worse the older TL (violet).

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    @HB
    I bethink your idea as merits and if for nothing else but, been there done that ;-)
    I have seen it suggested by someone else somewhere else as well, but still need to be convinced that it will happen in a similar shape. However I think it is worth keeping an eye on!

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    Just to round things up here is a quick 1H chart on XAGUSD: https://www.tradingview.com/x/vlnheFvj/

    Max beat me to it, but it might be something we may concentrate on some more, simply because as Max already mentioned, when the move is on it seems silver moves faster and further! Plus it looks somewhat more predictable right now.

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    Yeah i wouldnt mortgage the house over it, but I guess just look for that 1st wave, if you must apply EW theory.

    http://invst.ly/2wm4u

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    Remember that silver is somewhere halfway between copper and gold in terms of behaviour. Both an industrial metal and a precious one. So a spike in copper could drag it up... a little.

    http://invst.ly/2wm6u

    edit: actually stuff that idea, too spurious.

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    Hi hi, ***if you must apply EW theory.*** Love your work though!
    It sure will be in the back of my mind ready to deploy when the signs stand on go. I guess it might not become clear in time for the hike and "this time it might be different" because the market is pretty sure the hike will happen.
    How does POG stag up with the bond rate then and now? Have have you looked into that?

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    http://invst.ly/2wm8o

    They run together like clockwork.

    There are a ton of algos watching the bond auctions, but it is very important to watch these too.

    Bond wise, does not bode that well for gold. There is still a lot of upside potential on yields, but ultimately this depends on government policy and fed policy.

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    For the bonds, you can just choose any of the auctions... I normally pick the 10 year, but the other ones work pretty well too.

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    http://invst.ly/2wmaq

    This really doesnt look good for gold.

    But it really comes down to, in part, if a strong deficit government will happen.

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    Here you go HB, I simply tightened them up a little. So let's see how it goes from here.

    Weekly chart: http://invst.ly/2wmca

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    those long wicks either side, do give me some hope for gold.

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    If we come back to stocks, we are reminded of what Soros describes as the superbubble phase that started in the early 80's. This was based on a promise by governments that any sort of financial crisis would be managed, bailed out, printed out of, etc etc.

    There is no reason to think the superbubble is going to end. The fed will print more money as needed and push down the bond yields again, so that the government deficits can be sustained. This is bullish for stocks and gold. Pumping up gold is not a stated aim, but rather a perverse effect of the policy.

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    Somehow I feel the bond rate has gone a little off the rail, but in any case it seems silver is reacting more in tune than POG, as in inverse correlation!

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    It is not in government's interest to have high bond yields at all.

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    Just to keep on going with the smorgasbord of chart, here is the good old DXY as it has relevancy to PM 4H: https://www.tradingview.com/x/E4RsI9si/

    and I remind you of Max's comments from earlier this morning. The gap might be the target unless the 189 EMA or 200 SMA are going to lend a helping hand!

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    Some more historical information on bond yields and debt... You can see government debt around post wartime levels, but at the same time we've got such low yields, it is not a problem.

    Furthermore, you can see the exact point at which the early 80's superbubble is initiated (when stagflation started to resolve), in the long term yield chart.

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